Between the devil and...

Israel is poised between two extremes, trying to find its way safely between
Scylla and Charibdis. On the one hand you have the usual threat of
Palestinian terrorism, chafing at the bit to attack and claim that they
forced the IDF out of Gaza, and on the other hand you have the right wing
settler groups trying in every way possible to thwart the Government's
policy of withdrawing from Gaza. This is a dangerous and fluid time for
Israel.
In Gaza, forces of Hamas and the PA, supported by Fatah elements such as the
al Aksa Martyrs Brigades, have been in combat, shooting at each other and
burning each others facilities. At the same time Hamas are firing rockets
into Gaza Jewish settlements and into Israel proper. After the terrorist
incident in Netanya last week and many rocket attacks the IDF has massed on
the Gaza border ready to attack. But, PM Sharon and Secty of Defense Mohfaz
have held them back for now. Pres. Abbas has indicated a willingness to
confront Hamas and the Egyptians have come in again as intermediaries.
Also, US Secty of State Rice is due here soon in order to try to stabilize
the situation.
Presumably they are all telling Hamas and Islamic Jihad that it is in their
interests for the settlers and the IDF to withdraw from Gaza. But, the
terrorist groups want Israel to withdraw under fire in order to claim that
they forced Israel out. Israel will not allow this, but is prepared to wait
to avoid further conflict if Abbas, the Egyptians and the US can return calm
to the area. However, this seems unlikely since Hamas sees the opportunity
to strengthen its position in Gaza as a result of the Israeli pull-out, and
so they are prepared to challenge Abbas and the PA for control of some of
Gaza.
Meanwhile the right wing supporters of the Gaza settlers have been massing
in Netivot in order to march triumphantly into Gaza. But, the Israeli
police and security forces prevented hundreds of buses leaving Israeli
cities to join them, and the IDF has thrown a cordon around them at Kfar
Maimon where they have formed a camp city of ca. ten thousand. They have
been told to disperse but they refuse. There has been some violence,
pushing and shoving, and a few arrests, but so far no serious violence. The
march organizers say they want a peaceful march, but in the event that they
are all frustrated there is no telling what might happen. It is expected
that some of the extremists will try to make for the Gaza border to get to
Gush Katif to join the settlers in their bid to stop the evacuation that is
due to take place on Aug 15.
Israel is forced to expend tremendous resources to face these two disparate
threats. During the crisis ca. 80 IDF soldiers (including some women) have
refused orders related to the disengagement or removal of settlers from Gush
Katif, and they are being prosecuted. Most of them are either religious or
from other settlements themselves, and object to removing Jews from their
homes and giving the terrorists a seeming victory.
It is likely that the Government will win the tussle with the Israeli right
and either Hamas will be persuaded to renew the "calm" or the IDF will go
into Gaza once again and clear out some of them. The disengagement is aimed
at precisely avoiding this kind of situation that has repeated itself many
times over the past years. However, if or when the IDF withdraws and the
settlers are moved there is no guarantee that the terrorists will be
satisfied and will refrain from taking advantage of their new position.
However, a lot depends on the US trying to force Abbas to take action to
keep the areas of Gaza that are evacuated under PA control. If not further
clashes are likely, but with Israel in a stronger defensive position.