Trial balloon?

A brief news item that appeared in Israeli newspapers and then around the
world has caused some consternation. Eyal Arad, a strategic advisor to PM
Sharon was quoted at a conference on Tuesday night to have said in his
presentation that if the Palestinians continue to be uncooperative and if
diplomacy fails to lead to peace negotiations in the near future, Israel
will introduce a strategy of more unilateral moves. These would include
further disengagements in the West Bank combined with specific annexation of
territories that Israel claims. These would constitute the densely
populated areas, including such cities as Ariel, Ma'ale Adumim, and Kfar
Etzion.
As a result Israel would in effect unilaterally draw its own permanent
borders and would then withdraw behind them. These borders would be
considered the State's official borders and would be defended as such. Any
infiltration or attack would then be considered a cross-border attack and
would be dealt with according to international law with the new strategy of
tough responses. Two other Israeli Generals who were interviewed agreed that
this strategy was a reasonable one for Israel, as a definitive Israeli
response to Palestinian terrorism and intransigence. The PA would be left
to administer the areas evacuated.
The office of PM Sharon stated that it has been inundated by queries from
ambassadors from many countries and news media asking if this represented a
significant change in Israeli policy. In response, they stated that PM
Sharon regards the US-sponsored Road Map agreement as the only basis for
future Israeli actions and that this suggestion was Mr. Arad's personal
opinion. However, sources close to Sharon agreed that this policy made
sense if negotiations under the Road Map continued to be fruitless.
This may have been a "trial balloon" to see what reaction it got. The US in
particular was not amused. But, if indeed the PA either does not crack down
on Hamas or, if worse, Hamas does well in the municipal elections and
increases its strength, then Israel may be forced to recognize that the Road
Map is a convenient fiction that bears no relationship to reality (much like
the Oslo Accords were) and then this trial balloon may turn out indeed to be
the pattern of Israeli policy in the future. Of course, this assumes that
PM Sharon is going to be around for some time, and given his recent show of
strength both within Likud and in his reaction to the rocket bombardment
from Gaza, it seems that he is very much in charge.
Meanwhile Israel's get tough policy, called "operation first rain," included
the arrest of ca. 425 terrorists in the West Bank over the past week, the
closing down of 15 offices, and the removal of computers and other
information. Wednesday night in two separate incidents three terrorists
were killed near Jenin, two members of Islamic Jihad and one of al Aksa
Brigades of Fatah. Two more were killed in the Balata camp near Nablus on
Thursday night. Zachariah Zubeidi, the head of al Aksa in Jenin and
effectively the warlord running Jenin, announced that because of these
incidents he no longer considers the ceasefire to be in effect and he would
strike back at Israeli forces.
What you may not know is that on Monday there was also a major security
operation in Israel between Netanya and Haifa, in which the police closed
down the roads, including the main road from Tel Aviv to Haifa, while
searching for a suspected terrorist. They stopped a car near Zichron
Ya'akov on the coastal road, that was being driven by an Arab man in his
30's with a 60 year old Arab woman passenger and several suitcases. After
they were apprehended the security alert was cancelled. However, the case
has been kept under wraps so that we don't know if these people were actual
terrorists and if explosives were indeed found. This is daily life in
Israel, that the western news media generally ignores.
Nevertheless, there has been a much lower rate of attacks due to terrorism
in the past year than in the previous years since the intifada began in
2000. In the past year (Sept 2004-Sept 2005), 57 Israelis were killed in a
total of 3,531 attacks throughout Israel and the territories. Of these, 262
attacks were carried out inside Israel and in particular this year there
have been only 6 suicide bombings compared to 14 the previous year. Overall
in the past 5 years the toll has added up to 1,061 Israelis killed and 6,089
wounded in 26,159 attacks throughout Israel and the West Bank and Gaza.
Given the current IDF pressure on the terrorists in Gaza and the West Bank
and the continuing completion of the security fence, experts forecast that
the quiet is likely to continue.
_____________
PS. Happy News Year to all my readers.
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