Under or over

What will be the likely pattern of conflict between the Palestinians and
Israelis in the near future? Of course, I am assuming that the conflict
will continue, if only because PA Pres. Abbas has announced once again today
that he does not intend to confront Hamas now and he does not intend to
disarm them in order to avoid a civil war.
Given the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza that was completed today and the
separation of Israeli and Palestinian forces, as well as the strengthening
of the security barrier around the Gaza strip, the emphasis there will be on
"under" or "over", i.e. the building of tunnels, as were successfully used
by Palestinians for smuggling arms along the Gaza-Egypt border, and the
continued use of rockets and mortars to shoot over the barrier into Israel.
In the West Bank, where the IDF and other Israeli security forces will
remain in closer proximity to the Palestinian cities and terrorist
organizations, the chance of direct confrontation will continue, but will
also become rarer as the security fence nears its completion around
Jerusalem and in the southern West Bank, i.e. Judea. As the fence is
finished, the number of suicide bombings and attacks will continue to be
low, and so the terrorists will attempt to go "under" or "over" in the WB
also. The shooting of rockets, especially with longer range, over the West
Bank barrier into the densely populated cities of central Israel, Tel Aviv,
Ramat Gan, Netanya could become the nightmare scenario of Israeli existence.
The destruction of the synagogues left intact in Gaza will become a probable
point of resentment of Israelis against the Palestinians. After all, there
are hundreds of mosques and Muslim holy sites within Israel that are
protected by the Israeli police. Two years ago in the wake of the
"dolphinarium bombing" that killed over 20 young Israelis, the Hassan Bek
mosque that is across the main road and was used by the suicide bomber to
spend the night was protected by Israeli police against a Jewish mob seeking
revenge. Also a few weeks ago a Jewish couple were arrested for throwing a
pig's head into the same mosque's garden. Incidentally, Israeli Government
money was used to renovate this mosque some years ago, since it had been
allowed to fall into disrepair. Look at the contrast in the way the PA has
refused to protect the synagogues in Gaza, knowing that they will be
desecrated by Palestinian mobs probably organized by Hamas.
The Israeli Government has announced that the IDF response to future attacks
inside Israel will be tougher and more damaging against the Palestinians.
Under the accepted strategy of self-defense the IDF will use more aircraft
and bombardment than they have used before. If they use mortars against us,
we will use more mortars more accurately against them. Where there are
tunnels being dug, sensitive hearing devices and ditch diggers will be used
to expose and prevent the use of tunneling to smuggle terrorists into
Israel. Nevertheless, some will no doubt get through and there probably
will be suicide bombings, and we shall retaliate in greater strength than
before.
Someone has written to ask why not give up this violent "game" since we can
never defeat the "hydra-headed" monster. As soon as one terrorist is
killed, the argument goes, then more take his place. This is a nonsensical
argument, do we stop driving cars because there are crashes, do policemen
stop arresting murderers because murders continue? If people are blown up on
the London underground is it not the British Government's responsibility to
bring all the organizers to trial. If there is terrorism from the other
side, we are bound to fight it, and the fight is successful in that they do
not have unlimited numbers of terrorist organizers or leaders, they need
funds, materiel, arms and workshops, as well as places to live and meet.
Together with attacks on these sites, as well as the improvement of the
security barrier, the fight against terrorism will hopefully continue to
keep it at low and acceptable levels.
If Pres. Abbas will ever feel strong enough to confront Hamas and the others
and actually disarm them, to give only one source of armed authority in the
PA, then things may change and the chances for peace will improve. May we
all live and survive until that day.