Lebanon and Syria

Hands up anyone who believes Syrian President Bashar Assad's denial in his
recent interview on CNN that he had nothing to do with the assassination of
Rafik Hariri in Lebanon (noone put up their hands).
The Syrian presence in Lebanon has been marked by the use of car/truck bombs
to send brutal messages. Perhaps the previous most significant incident of
this kind was the murder of Bashar Gemayel, Christian President-elect of
Lebanon in 1982. Since Gemayel was an ally of the Israelis in their
invasion of Lebanon, his assassination changed the course of Middle East
history. It enabled Syria to continue its domination of Lebanon until 2005,
when in the wake of the assassination of former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri,
they were forced to withdraw their forces.
In discussing the two countries, Lebanon and Syria, it is important to know
that there is no Syrian Embassy in Lebanon. Why? Because Syria does not
recognize Lebanon as a separate, independent, sovereign State, just as it
does not recognize Israel or Jordan. This is because France, the mandatory
power in Syria, separated the predominantly Christian coastal province of
Syria to form Lebanon in 1920 (although it only became fully independent of
France in 1943). This separation was never recognized by Syria when it too
became independent in 1945. As far as Syria was/is concerned this was an
illegitimate separation, and as with Jordan and Israel/Palestine, it
continued to regard them as part of Greater Syria (while attacking Israel
for supposedly claiming Jordan for a Greater Israel).
This situation is similar to Saddam Hussein's claim of Kuwait as a province
of Iraq. Certainly the borders of the Arab countries in the Middle East
were arbitrarily drawn by the colonial powers in London and Paris. But, once
the sovereignty of a State is recognized by the UN, the clock cannot be
turned back by conquest. Hence Iraq was forced out of Kuwait by US and
allied forces, and Syria was forced out of Lebanon, even though it has
continued to interfere in Lebanese affairs with numerous car bombs in
Christian areas.
It is noteworthy that the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (and
surprisingly not Hizbollah) was implicated in the assassination of Hariri by
the Mehlis Report delivered on Friday to UN Secty. Gen Annan. The PFLP is
an extreme Marxist terrorist organization that has its headquarters in
Damascus (you guessed it), and its leader Jabil Rajoub is a well known
client of Syria. Because of the claim by Syria on Palestine, Arafat and
Hafez Assad (fortunately both of them gone now) were great enemies. That's
why Syria has its own Palestinian terrorist organizations.
Bashar Assad is not as ruthless and devious as his father was. He has had to
retreat from Lebanon and back down in the face of increased US hostility
because of his support of terrorism and for allowing Arab terrorists to
infiltrate Iraq from his territory to join the insurgency. Now the US and
France (an unlikely combination) are joining forces to push for sanctions in
the UN Security Council against Syria, with France playing its traditional
role as protector of Lebanon and the US because of its role in Iraq. Of
course, this action results from the UN Report implicating high level Syrian
officials in the assassination of Hariri (who would almost certainly have
become the next Lebanese President).
The power structure of the Alawite clan that actually runs Syria may at this
point decide that Assad is expendable. The Syrian FM al Sha'ara was accused
of lying to the UN investigation in a letter he sent, so he may also be
expendable. If they are removed from office maybe will this satisfy the
Americans and French and avoid sanctions against Syria, that it can hardly
afford. If a deal is struck such that the US and France get a guarantee of
no further Syrian intervention in Lebanon and Iraq, and Syria turns over
those accused of complicity in Hariri's assassination for trial, maybe they
will leave the Ba'athist-Alawite regime in power, but with a different
figurehead. If such a deal is struck this will avoid the need for direct
American intervention and/or chaos in another Arab country. Whatever the
Americans do it will be judged throughout the Arab world as part of their
continuing anti-Arab campaign. But, it all depends on how serious the
Americans are in using this opportunity to get real change in the Middle
East and in Syria in particular.