Unifying Likud

After the Gaza disengagement Ariel Sharon could not unify the Likud Party.
Bibi Netanyahu could not unify the Likud Party. The only politician who
could unify Likud is Amir Peretz, newly elected left-wing leader of the
Labor Party.
Yesterday Sharon and Peretz met for the first time, and agreed that there
should be a new election in March. Sharon forced Peretz to wait until he was
ready to meet with him. Peretz forced the election by withdrawing Labor from
Sharon's coalition Government. They are not good friends! Although few
would give Peretz a serious chance against Sharon, nevertheless, there are
some unknown factors at work, including Peretz capability to attract
Shephardim and people who are fed up with the Palestinian situation (like
the war in Iraq in the US) and want a greater focus on domestic social
issues.
Likud knows that Sharon stands a much better chance of beating Peretz than
does Netanyahu, and accordingly Sharon's margin over Netanyahu in the
internal Likud Party race has increased by 10%. Under the circumstances, it
would be self-destructive for the Likud rebels who split with Sharon over
the disengagement to maintain their anti-Sharon stance. So the Likud Party
met on Wednesday and many of the former rebels spoke out for Party unity,
and this means uniting around Sharon as their best candidate for the next
elections.
But, Sharon in his characteristic way, hardly responded. He did not make
the announcement that they expected, that he would be the Likud candidate,
and put off the decision until Sunday. This annoyed a lot of the former
rebels since they feel that they in effect capitulated to him and he gave
them the brush off. In effect he said to them "who are you kidding,
nothing's really changed?" So now they have to sweat it out until he
decides.
A source in the J'sam Post is quoted as saying that the majority of
Sharon's advisers in a four hour long session at his ranch advised him to
leave the Likud and start his own party. But, he postponed the decision
until the results of a deep poll that he commissioned is ready on Sunday.
The general opinion is that Sharon will opt to continue to head Likud,
partly because that is easier. For a new party he needs to collect a lot
more money, and because his son Omri just pleaded guilty of illegal campaign
activities for the last election, and will likely go to jail, Sharon has to
be very careful this time around, all eyes will be upon him. Since most
people now think that he will defeat Netanyahu for the Likud leadership (or
that Netanyahu will withdraw) so he may decide to stay with Likud. Then it
is likely that Sharon would go ahead and defeat Peretz in the election on
both the security and economic fronts. Netanyahu will have to curb his
ambitions for another time. One wonders what horse-trading is going on in
smoke filled rooms these days.