The election results
The election for the 17th Israeli Knesset is over. The projected election results have many implications, for the future, here are some interpretations:
- The turnout was the lowest in Israeli history, only 63% voted, compared to 68% last time. However, this is still higher than most western nations, including the USA. It was thought that a low turnout would help the right, but this doesn't seem to have transpired.
- This election represents a watershed, in that for the first time the majority of Israelis have apparently decided that there is no point trying to make peace with the Palestinians. Israelis want to disengage from them and do what is in Israel's interest to bring about as peaceful a life as possible. They haven't given up totally on the two state solution, but they have delayed it indefinitely, Both sides will now be mutually disengaged from each other. This attitude has also allowed some Israelis to focus on domestic issues.
- Kadima won, but with a lower majority than expected, instead of up to 45 seats under Sharon, they are projected to receive 28, quite a come down. The question is, does this reduced majority give Ehud Olmert enough of a mandate to pursue his stated intention of unilateral disengagement from the West Bank and can he form a strong enough coalition on this basis?
- Most of Kadima's votes came from Likud, that is practically crushed as a party with only 11 seats in the next Knesset, down to fifth place. Although Bibi gave a defiant speech, he may well face a strong challenge from Silvan Shalom for leadership of the party. The irony is that if Bibi had not challenged Sharon for control of Likud, causing him to split away, he might well have been Sharon's inheritor in place of Olmert. As it is, Likud will be in the opposition.
- Labor did well under Peretz to obtain 20 seats, the same as they had in the previous Knesset. Peretz' emphasis on social issues may well have saved the Party. Most likely they will form a Kadima-Labor coalition with a bloc of 48 seats.
- Shas with 13 seats came third in the race. If Shas and United Torah Judaism (6) join the coalition as expected that will bring it to a core total of 67 (61 is the minimum requirement).
- The two most surprising results were that Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel our home") under Avigdor Lieberman came fourth with 13 seats and the Pensioner's Party (Gil or "age"), that was hardly heard from before, won 7. If Gil join the Kadima-Labor-Shas-UTJ coalition this raises the total number of seats to 74, more than enough to govern with. Olmert may prefer a Center-Left coalition with Meretz (5 seats), reaching 72. A Center-Left coalition with Gil will give 79.
- Note that IB is a right wing party, principally made up of Russian immigrants, so the idea that the right as a whole was trounced is untrue. In order to join the coalition Government as Lieberman wants (raising the total to a possible 92!) IB will have to agree to accept Olmert's policies.
- But, each party in the coalition requires its own set of Ministerial positions, so Olmert is faced with a series of delicate negotiations. On the other hand he is in a strong position. He has 45 days in which to form his coalition once he is invited to do so by President Katsav.
Not being a supporter of Kadima, I listened to Olmert's victory speech with some reservations. But, I found it a good speech, that laid out the options quite clearly, much more specifically than Sharon usually expressed. Olmert emphasized the need for domestic unity. He said he would prefer to negotiate with the PA Government, but If there is no Palestinian partner on the other side, Israel will decide its final borders unilaterally. This will require some movement of Israeli settlers into major blocs and their incorporation into Israel. Economically the country is split between rich and poor and social distinctions must be tackled seriously. Overall Olmert is committed to a Jewish and democratic state. Let's hope from here on things will go smoothly for our beloved country.
- The turnout was the lowest in Israeli history, only 63% voted, compared to 68% last time. However, this is still higher than most western nations, including the USA. It was thought that a low turnout would help the right, but this doesn't seem to have transpired.
- This election represents a watershed, in that for the first time the majority of Israelis have apparently decided that there is no point trying to make peace with the Palestinians. Israelis want to disengage from them and do what is in Israel's interest to bring about as peaceful a life as possible. They haven't given up totally on the two state solution, but they have delayed it indefinitely, Both sides will now be mutually disengaged from each other. This attitude has also allowed some Israelis to focus on domestic issues.
- Kadima won, but with a lower majority than expected, instead of up to 45 seats under Sharon, they are projected to receive 28, quite a come down. The question is, does this reduced majority give Ehud Olmert enough of a mandate to pursue his stated intention of unilateral disengagement from the West Bank and can he form a strong enough coalition on this basis?
- Most of Kadima's votes came from Likud, that is practically crushed as a party with only 11 seats in the next Knesset, down to fifth place. Although Bibi gave a defiant speech, he may well face a strong challenge from Silvan Shalom for leadership of the party. The irony is that if Bibi had not challenged Sharon for control of Likud, causing him to split away, he might well have been Sharon's inheritor in place of Olmert. As it is, Likud will be in the opposition.
- Labor did well under Peretz to obtain 20 seats, the same as they had in the previous Knesset. Peretz' emphasis on social issues may well have saved the Party. Most likely they will form a Kadima-Labor coalition with a bloc of 48 seats.
- Shas with 13 seats came third in the race. If Shas and United Torah Judaism (6) join the coalition as expected that will bring it to a core total of 67 (61 is the minimum requirement).
- The two most surprising results were that Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel our home") under Avigdor Lieberman came fourth with 13 seats and the Pensioner's Party (Gil or "age"), that was hardly heard from before, won 7. If Gil join the Kadima-Labor-Shas-UTJ coalition this raises the total number of seats to 74, more than enough to govern with. Olmert may prefer a Center-Left coalition with Meretz (5 seats), reaching 72. A Center-Left coalition with Gil will give 79.
- Note that IB is a right wing party, principally made up of Russian immigrants, so the idea that the right as a whole was trounced is untrue. In order to join the coalition Government as Lieberman wants (raising the total to a possible 92!) IB will have to agree to accept Olmert's policies.
- But, each party in the coalition requires its own set of Ministerial positions, so Olmert is faced with a series of delicate negotiations. On the other hand he is in a strong position. He has 45 days in which to form his coalition once he is invited to do so by President Katsav.
Not being a supporter of Kadima, I listened to Olmert's victory speech with some reservations. But, I found it a good speech, that laid out the options quite clearly, much more specifically than Sharon usually expressed. Olmert emphasized the need for domestic unity. He said he would prefer to negotiate with the PA Government, but If there is no Palestinian partner on the other side, Israel will decide its final borders unilaterally. This will require some movement of Israeli settlers into major blocs and their incorporation into Israel. Economically the country is split between rich and poor and social distinctions must be tackled seriously. Overall Olmert is committed to a Jewish and democratic state. Let's hope from here on things will go smoothly for our beloved country.
posted by Jack Cohen at 1:46 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home