The last Hashemite?

Gen. Yair Naveh, Head of Israel's Central Command, caused a media storm last
week by inferring in a briefing that the future of the Kingdom of Jordan is
insecure. When this was reported, King Abdullah of Jordan was aggrieved and
threatened to break off relations with Israel. The Israeli Government
disowned the General's comments and issued an apology: "Israel sees Jordan
as a strong and stable country with a glorious tradition and promising future.
Israel wishes to express respect and appreciation for the Hashemite Kingdom's
vital contributions to the stability and peace in the region." Why is it such
a touchy subject? Because it's probably true, but no-one wants to admit it.
King Abdullah may be the last of the Hashemites, former rulers of Mecca and
Medina and descendents of Mohammed. They were considered too westernized
and insufficiently pious by the followers of ibn al Wahhab who lived out in
the Arabian desert, who in 1929 in alliance with ibn Saud, leader of the Saudi
tribe, invaded Mecca and Medina, threw out the Hashemites and in 1932
established the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. While there had been four Hashemite
Kingdoms at one time, Arabia, Syria, Iraq and Transjordan, Arabia was lost,
Syrian control was transitory, and Iraq lasted for a few years before the
Hashemite King was assassinated. That leaves one! And everyone knows that
the Hashemite monarchy in Jordan hangs by a thread but is protected only by
Israel. In 1974 Syria threatened to invade Jordan and the threat of an
Israeli counter-attack caused them to withdraw their army.
So irony of ironies, the throne of the last ruling descendent of Mohammed is
guaranteed (informally) by the Jewish State. Who seeks to overthrow the
Hashemite monarchy? First, the Palestinians, who constitute ca. 70% of
Jordan's population; the rest are Bedouin who are loyal to the Hashemites.
Second, the radicals in Syria, Iraq and Palestine, who see King Abdullah as no
more than a tool of the Israelis and Americans. Thirdly, al Qaeda, as shown
recently by the blowing up of a wedding party in Amman by suicide bombers
sent by al Zarqawi, Jordanian Palestinian who is the al Qaeda chief in Iraq.
So the General was asking a realistic question, with enemies like these how
long can King Abdullah hope to survive? Will he be succeeded by one of his
descendents? Since King Abdullah and the ruling elite in Jordan are
pro-Western, and since they have a signed peace treaty with Israel, it is
definitely in Israel's interest that they maintain their hold on power. It
would be a great loss if a radical regime were to take power in Jordan, or in
Saudi Arabia (which also has all the oil). So while the US protects the
Saudis, Israel protects the Hashemites. If any third Arab State's army
entered Jordan with a view to overthrowing the Hashemites and attacking
Israel, it would be considered a causus belli by Israel. So even though the
Hashemites have many enemies, they might be around for a while.