Monday, May 22, 2006

The South goes left

In what could be described as Montezuma's revenge, there is a distinctive tilt
to the left in South America. Three South American countries, Venezuela under
Pres. Hugo Chavez, Bolivia under Pres. Evo Morales, and Brazil under Pres.
Frederico Lula da Silva, have recently taken a lurch to the left. In doing so
they have made friendly ties with Castro's Cuba, and have demonized the
United States as the source of all evil.
Perhaps this political turn was inevitable, since the region is extremely
poor, the natives are just getting the hang of democracy, and some of them
are reaching into the top layers of the elites of these S. American countries.
While Lula in Brazil is fairly responsible, with an attempt not to stray too
far to the extreme, Morales in Bolivia is showing no such restraint. He has
nationalized the gas/oil industry, has confiscated the plants of the private
foreign oil companies, and to be sure has posted troops around their
facilities. This would be fine if it were not for the fact that Brazilian
companies are the largest owners of Bolivian oil facilities, so now there is
some tension between the allies. But, this was recently ironed out at a
regional meeting of the Presidentes. Notably absent from this meeting was,
you guessed it, the USA.
This week Ecuador almost joined this alliance when Pres. Alfredo Palacio
decided to nationalize the gas industry because of disputes with the foreign
companies. However, in his case, it is more of a selective policy than a
general pro-leftist alignment.
The leftwards turn in South America has great potential to discomfit the US
and its oil/gas policies, and could lead to even higher oil/gasoline prices in
the world, that mainly affect the US. We will see whether or not these
Presidentes really have the interests of their people at heart or are more
interested in politics and fostering their anti-US bias. This all comes at an
awkward time for the US Administration when it is focusing most of its
foreign policy attention on the situation in Iraq and Iran.
This policy shift also has implications for Israel and the Jews. There are
rumors that Chavez of Venezuela is negotiating to sell US aircraft to Iran,
that would be illegal under agreements with the US, and a large delegation
of Venezuelan Jews is visiting Israel to improve ties. I expect we will
soon see an increase in aliyah from these S. American countries.

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