Sunday, December 10, 2006

The next war scenario

The outlines of the next war as seen by Israel's enemies is quite clear. First, Hamas and Hizbollah will make coordinated attacks as they did last summer. Then when Israel is bleeding and is being hit by rockets both north and south, Iran will step in with its long-range nuclear tipped rockets and commit the coup de grace. Result, the Zionist entity will be "wiped off the map."
In achieving this scenario, several things must happen first. Note that Hamas has been stringing Pres. Abbas along for about 6 months, not agreeing to a Unity Government and not allowing him to take over. In fact an obscure statement was issued by Hamas in Gaza saying that Hamas intends to contest the next Presidential elections in the PA and expects to win the Presidency from Abbas. PM Haniyeh, obviously feeling strong enough to leave Gaza, is currently visiting Iran and stated at a rally at Tehran University that Hamas will never recognize Israel's right to exist and (echoing Ahmedinejad) that the end of the Zionist entity is in sight. Hamas is also training an army of 10,000 men (supported by Iran) along the lines of Hizbollah, that has not yet seen any action, so the IDF has been battling the usual terrorists, but this new army is being held in reserve for future action. It is amazing that the Israel Government knowing this has allowed them to continue training and arming this army with weapons smuggled from Egypt, but has done nothing about it!
Meanwhile in Lebanon, Hizbollah is cashing in its chips. It is making a play to take over Lebanon on behalf of its Syrian and Iranian backers. They are also now supplying Hizbollah with updated weapons and rockets, mostly trucked in at night over the Syrian border. Two things are worth noting about this, first UNIFIL (the new improved version) is doing nothing about this, and second the ambassadors of the EU countries in UNIFIL have been shown film of this smuggling operation taken by Israeli flyovers (that they oppose) but have done nothing about it. So much for UNIFIL and the EU. Once Hizbollah takes over the Lebanese Government they will first cancel the UN's judicial enquiry into the assassination of Rafik Hariri. Then they will somehow expel UNIFIL or remove their remit to extend to the Lebanese-Israeli border, and they will then take up their positions as they were before the recent war. They will then initiate border incidents with Israel, that will result in Israel being censured by the UN.
When the scene is set, about 6 months-1 year from now, hostilities will begin. Then Israel will respond as expected and will be hit by the new improved Hamas Army in Gaza and the new improved Hizbollah Army in south Lebanon. Feigning some kind of excuse Iran will then come to the aid of their proxies, and the real war will break out. Iran can send its Iranian guard through Syria to Lebanon and could fly and drop parachutists into Gaza and/or the West Bank. This might also bring Syria into the war. Israel can stop these attacks and kill many of the parachutists, but by no means all. When this war has gone on for about a year and Israel is being exhausted, then Iran will have its nuclear weapons ready and will announce that either Israel capitulates or will be bombed. Since Israel will not capitulate (or even if it does), Iran will then drop the A-bomb on Tel Aviv. That in outline is the Iranian plan.
Seen from the Israeli point of view there are various defensive measures that can be taken. First, the IDF can invade Gaza to find and destroy the nascent Hamas army before it can be fully trained, armed and deployed. But this requires a decision by the Government that has been known so far as weak and indecisive. Second, a preemptive strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities can be made to prevent the development and deployment of the A-bomb. This will be condemned in all parts of the world, but from an Israeli perspective, better to hit first than be hit first, or have we learnt nothing from history. In any case the rest of the world will crucify us and not come to our aid. Note that the US is conspicuously absent in this scenario, it has all but written itself out of the script.
Note also that the Hizbollah takeover of all of Lebanon is not a sure thing. Apart from his braggadocio and swaggering after his "victory" in the recent war, Nasrallah may be overreaching. He has not yet shown that he can overcome the anti-Syrian opposition. However, he is banking on them being afraid to respond strongly and hence be responsible for initiating a new civil war, that Nasrallah does not fear (they are prepared to lose many lives to gain their ends).
This is only a possible scenario, but with the leader of Hamas visiting Tehran and being seen shaking hands with Pres. Ahmedinejad, and the leader of Hizbollah confidently stating that he will bring down the democratically elected Lebanese Government, this looks like a reasonable probability. Only the time line is uncertain. And where is the leader of the free world in all of this, mired in death and controversy in Iraq, and making ready to "cut and run."

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