Release of British hostages
In a surprising move the Iranian President Ahmedinejad personally released the British naval hostages today. The question is why, if they were indeed trespassing on Iranian waters as they claim, why would he release them? I think Ahmedinejad and his sponsors, the hard line Ayatollahs, feared a ratcheting up of the situation as warned by the British PM and the American President (with two aircraft carrier groups in the Persian Gulf). I am sure that the British were telling them that "we can't control the Americans, you know that George Bush, he's a 'cowboy' and he'll start shooting, unlike us, we are gentlemen, so deal with us before it's too late."
The release was a brilliant PR operation by the Iranians. They undercut people like me who expected them to milk this situation for a long time and allow it to get worse before it was resolved. One of my correspondents predicted that the crisis would last two weeks, just enough time for the Iranians to get what they wanted, without further economic consequences and domestic opposition building up, and just enough time to help the public to forget the nuclear issue.
Apparently this story was greatly played down in the Iranian media, partly because of a national holiday (for Mohammed's birthday). But, public opinion in Tehran, what there is of it, was against this kind of adventurism. People are fed up with the regime's emphasis on foreign affairs and not on the poor domestic economic situation. In fact, Iran cannot afford much more stress on its economy, including the potential cutting off of refined gasoline supplies, since it receives ca. 40% from foreign sources. Although Iran has ample crude oil production, they lack the refinery capacity (as does the West), and won't have any more for the forseeable future.
So the sanctions are biting and they don't want even more problems that might lead to domestic unrest.
But, all this is guesswork. It may be that the Iranian Guards overstepped their responsiility in taking the hostages, or that the Mullahs decided that they had reached the point of diminishing returns on this incident.
Maybe we'll never know for sure, but it's good that Iran is releasing them now, alive and well. I wish the same were true of our hostages, one in Gaza and two in Lebanon, but being Israelis we can't expect such a good outcome.
Now the British Navy will have some explaining and learning to do, just as the IDF did after the Lebanon War. Perhaps the Navy did not fight back because they were outmaneuvered by the Iranians. Perhaps they feared unnecessary casualties. But, in any case they are not supposed to sit passively by while their men are captured. I think they need to rethink their rules of engagement.
The IDF was found to be greatly deficient in training of reserves. It has been revealed that 20% of reserves did no training whatsoever for 5 years, and were unable to carry out the simplest of tasks. This is a very dangerous situation and hopefully is now being repaired. It may be that something like this, a complete breakdown of response happened in the British Navy case, and hopefully the Navy will be re-organized so that this type of situation will not arise again to embarrass the Government and put Britain in a dangerous and difficult situation.
Meanwhile everyone is asking who gained most from this situation, the British Govt. because it kept its cool and stood firm against blackmail and threats, not apologizing but not being confrontational either, or the Iranians, who took British military personnel hostage and then released them without any consequences. At present it is impossible to say, but a deal may have been done, and it may be that Iranians will now operate in Iraq without further fear of being arrested by Coalition forces.
The release was a brilliant PR operation by the Iranians. They undercut people like me who expected them to milk this situation for a long time and allow it to get worse before it was resolved. One of my correspondents predicted that the crisis would last two weeks, just enough time for the Iranians to get what they wanted, without further economic consequences and domestic opposition building up, and just enough time to help the public to forget the nuclear issue.
Apparently this story was greatly played down in the Iranian media, partly because of a national holiday (for Mohammed's birthday). But, public opinion in Tehran, what there is of it, was against this kind of adventurism. People are fed up with the regime's emphasis on foreign affairs and not on the poor domestic economic situation. In fact, Iran cannot afford much more stress on its economy, including the potential cutting off of refined gasoline supplies, since it receives ca. 40% from foreign sources. Although Iran has ample crude oil production, they lack the refinery capacity (as does the West), and won't have any more for the forseeable future.
So the sanctions are biting and they don't want even more problems that might lead to domestic unrest.
But, all this is guesswork. It may be that the Iranian Guards overstepped their responsiility in taking the hostages, or that the Mullahs decided that they had reached the point of diminishing returns on this incident.
Maybe we'll never know for sure, but it's good that Iran is releasing them now, alive and well. I wish the same were true of our hostages, one in Gaza and two in Lebanon, but being Israelis we can't expect such a good outcome.
Now the British Navy will have some explaining and learning to do, just as the IDF did after the Lebanon War. Perhaps the Navy did not fight back because they were outmaneuvered by the Iranians. Perhaps they feared unnecessary casualties. But, in any case they are not supposed to sit passively by while their men are captured. I think they need to rethink their rules of engagement.
The IDF was found to be greatly deficient in training of reserves. It has been revealed that 20% of reserves did no training whatsoever for 5 years, and were unable to carry out the simplest of tasks. This is a very dangerous situation and hopefully is now being repaired. It may be that something like this, a complete breakdown of response happened in the British Navy case, and hopefully the Navy will be re-organized so that this type of situation will not arise again to embarrass the Government and put Britain in a dangerous and difficult situation.
Meanwhile everyone is asking who gained most from this situation, the British Govt. because it kept its cool and stood firm against blackmail and threats, not apologizing but not being confrontational either, or the Iranians, who took British military personnel hostage and then released them without any consequences. At present it is impossible to say, but a deal may have been done, and it may be that Iranians will now operate in Iraq without further fear of being arrested by Coalition forces.
posted by Jack Cohen at 1:18 PM
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