Friday, June 15, 2007

Setbacks or opportunities

The assassination by car-bomb in Beirut of Walid Eido, an anti-Syrian Member of the Lebanese Parliament, is another in a long series (at least 8) of such assassinations in Lebanon. This is the hallmark of Syrian intelligence, and this is the way Syrians practice democracy. The anti-Syrian forces had only a majority of 5 in Parliament, and now after Eido's death it's only 4, so now all Syria has to do to render the Lebanese Parliament totally ineffective is to kill another 4 anti-Syrian members. No doubt they are planning to do this as Lebanon mourns the latest casualty. Note that Eido was the first Sunni Arab assassinated in the latest round, as opposed to the others who were Christians. Syria has never recognized Lebanon as a sovereign state, just as they don't recognise Israel, and they are not going to make peace with either, whatever anyone says.
Thursday Hamas captured the headquarters of the PA Security Forces in Gaza City. This was the major stronghold of Fatah troops loyal to Pres. Abbas. The survivors were lead outside in their underwear, allowed to pray and then executed in the street. Hamas has carried out many human rights abuses in Gaza, including the deliberate murder of women and girls. Meanwhile Abbas in Ramallah is saying the situation is "insane" and is trying to arrange a ceasefire with PM Haniyeh. What an idiot! Doesn't he know its too late, all of Gaza is now under Hamas control. In Gaza its all over!
Have you noticed that with the takeover of Gaza by Hamas, the renewed fighting in Lebanon and the blowing up (again) of the Shi'ite Mosque in Samarrah in Iraq, the forces of Islamic extremism in the Middle East are taking the ascendency. Abbas is complaining in Ramallah, but doing nothing effective, the Shi'ites are blaming the Americans (who else?) for the destruction of the mosque in Iraq, and Lebanon is once again sliding into chaos. The forces of Iran and their satellites are winning against the "moderate" Sunnis, and this has tremendous implications for Israel, the Middle East and the US.
In the middle of this action, Islamic Jihad sent two women from Gaza into Israel as suicide bombers. They were caught at a checkpoint, and confessed. The older woman has 8 children and is pregnant. She was the head of an IJ women's clinic in Gaza, and her assistant has 4 children. They were first on their way to the West Bank to pick up their bomb belts. Their targets were Tel Aviv and Netanya.
The current wave of military actions are unleashed by anti-Western extremist Islamist forces because the US is bogged down in Iraq and is unable to free itself from that quagmire. In this situation there may be some positive elements for Israel, as the calm center of the storm. But, it is not a good situation as the enemies of Israel and the US tighten their hold on Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq and seek to surround Israel. Both Jordan and Egypt are concerned about these developments, since they are also targeted, and there may be a more realistic realization in Ramallah, Amman, Cairo and Riyadh that the enemies of the current Arab regimes are not in Jerusalem, but are in Damascus, Teheran and Gaza City.
Abbas has dissolved the Unity Government with Hamas and has declared a state of emergency. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Israel could do a separate deal with Fatah over the West Bank. But, for the moment the idea of a Palestinian State is dead, and that is probably good for Israel. Israel has taken a complete hands-off attitude towards Gaza. Whether or not the IDF will eventually be forced to invade Gaza and engage in another war there depends on how Hamas now conducts itself.


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