Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Gaza intifada

There are signs of a building "intifada" in Gaza. Intifada means "throwing off" in Arabic, and has been taken as the name of the Palestinian uprising against the Israeli "occupation." But, the so-called occupation can have two meanings, the Israeli control of territories formerly occupied by Jordan from 1948-67, namely Gaza, Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), or it can mean the whole of Israel occupying what was/should be Palestine. Most anti-Israel activists don't bother to clarify whether they mean the former limited goal, or the latter unlimited destruction of the State of Israel. In fact they usually prefer the ambiguity, so that "occupation" can be a generic anti-Israel term.
When applied to Gaza however, "intifada" has no ambiguity, it refers to the "shaking off" of the Hamas occupation of Gaza by Fatah. Following last Friday prayers there was a major escalation in this conflict, when thousands of Fatah supporteres staged demonstrations, rallies and marches throughout the Gaza strip. The Hamas security forces saw this as a dangerous escalation, and attacked the pro-Fatah forces with sticks. Noone was killed, but hundreds of Fatah supporters were beaten and injured. The question is whether or not this intifada will grow and be sustained, or will wither in response to overwhelming Hamas use of force.
Meanwhile on the West Bank where the situation is reversed, Israeli security forces report that Hamas is well-organized and well-armed and is biding its time to attempt to overthrow the Fatah authority. Given the previous collapse of superior numbers of Fatah security forces in Gaza, the prospect does not look good for Fatah on the West Bank.
But PM Olmert continues to negotiate with Pres. Abbas on issues of "principle" regarding an Israel-Palestinian rapprochement in time for the projected Middle East peace conference in November, while rockets continue to rain down on Sderot. For the opening of the Israeli school year on Monday, Islamic Jihad fired 9 rockets into Sderot as a "gift". These were intended to kill Israeli children and one did land 5 meters from a day care center. Although noone was injured, the children were traumatized and were taken to hospital for treatment for shock. Sderot parents then pulled all their children out of school and today plan a demonstration outside the Knesset.
So far, in response to this ongoing provocation, the IDF responses have been measured. But, there is a strong possibility that to prevent further such volleys of rockets and to try to rescue their low credibility, Olmert and Defense Minister Barak will order a more active IDF ground offensive to prevent rockets being launched from Gaza. How such an action might affect the Fatah-Hamas clash in Gaza or elsewhere is unknown.

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