Monday, October 22, 2007

Revolving door

Israel has been shocked (yes, shocked!) that when PM Olmert was going to visit Pres. Abbas in the PA in Jericho back in June, that there was a plan to assassinate him! But, this was not by Hamas, nor by some secret terrorist unit, this was going to be carried out by members of Fatah, but not only members of Fatah, but members of the PA security services!
What is more shocking is that Abbas and his intelligence people did not know about this plan (so they say), but were warned by Israeli intelligence, and so the meeting was moved to Jerusalem. Further, although two or three men were arrested, they were supposedly held for two months, interrogated and then...released!
This is what is known as the "revolving door policy." Namely the PA Govt. arrests terrorists, when it is politic to do so, and then releases them when the light is not shining on them. Pres. Arafat had such a policy and was definitely not trying to stamp out terrorism, in fact he was supporting many different terrorist groups so that no one of them could challenge him.
Now, Pres. Abbas is supposed to be fighting terrorism, and in fact the first step of the so-called Road Map to peace calls for the PA to stop terrorism. Now, everyone believes that Abbas is sincere when he says that he wants to do this. He has issued orders to disband all militias in PA territory three times (!), but noone has bothered to take any notice of him. So Arafat didn't want to stop terrorism and Abbas can't, either he is incompetent or incapable.
In the case of the security men who wanted to assassinate Olmert, now that the light is on again, the PA announced that the men responsible have been re-arrested and are undergoing further interrogation. But, how is it that Israeli intelligence knew about this plan and the PA for whom the men worked supposedly did not? Therein lies a mystery.
The Head of the Security forces of the PA (West Bank) has issued a statement that he is pursuing the matter, but does anyone really believe that he is acting seriously. Is he going to fire everyone in the Fatah security force who might have wanted to assassinate the Israeli PM. In fact, in August, when Olmert did visit Jericho, the quietist town in the PA, the Shin Bet warned him that he was taking an unnecessary risk.
When Secty. of State Rice was here recently she was informed of this attempt, and now that it has been announced, several members of the Knesset have urged Olmert to stop all negotiations with Abbas, on the grounds that he is obviously incapable of controlling the PA and so there is no point in making an agreement with him. Yuval Diskin, Head of the Security Services (Shin Bet) cancelled his meeting with his PA opposite number in protest over the incident. But, Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik still met today with PA PM Salam Fayyed, who said that they are trying to "learn" from the incident.
Ominously Abbas has stated that if the result of the planned Annapolis Conference is not to his liking (i.e. if Israel does not make enough concessions) then he will resign. So people in the PA are preparing themselves for the natural outcome, the start of another intifada and the extension of the Palestinian civil war and the takeover of the West Bank by Hamas.
Israel is in a no-win situation, if the Govt. concedes in Annapolis what Abbas wants, then we shall be weakened and vulnerable and Hamas and Fatah could attack us more easily. If the Govt. stands firm and gives only a "statement of principles" then Abbas will declare it a loss, and will either resign or be swept away in another orgy of violence. Take your pick!

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