Friday, December 28, 2007

Assassination of Bhutto

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan was predictable. Not only was there a bombing attempt against her on the day of her return to Pakistan only a few weeks ago, but her pro-Western liberalism and merely being a woman made her anathema to the crazy extremist Islamists. However, it is also possible that Pres. Musharraf or some of his supporters may have decided to get rid of her. She was a favorite to displace him as elected President in the supposed upcoming elections. Now Nawaz Sharif, the other former President who was previously removed by a military coup, and who was also recently allowed to return to Pakistan, may be in immediate danger.
This assassination will be used to justify Musharraf's imposition of a state of emergency a few weeks ago, which was protested by Bhutto and Sharif. However, the change in the situation may trigger a civil war between Bhutto's followers of the PPP party and the Army who are loyal to Musharraf.
The whole situation is fraught with danger, because Musharraf is pro-Western, and the Islamists,Taliban and al Qaeda supporters in Pakistan (and they are numerous) will use the chaotic situation to try to overthrow him. The future of Afghanistan is also delicately balanced depending on the outcome of what happens in Pakistan.
It is too easy to say that Islamic states like Pakistan are inherently violent. It is true that there have been several coups and Bhutto's father was executed after one of them. But, there have also been political assassinations in the US (the Kennedys and MLK), in India (Indira Ghandi) and in Israel (Yitzhak Rabin). However, the level of violence in Pakistan is certainly generally higher. In the earlier attempt on her life 140 people were killed, and in this successful attack the report is that 41 were killed by the shooter/suicide bomber. They have no respect for human life. But, similarly truck bombs have been used in Lebanon to assassinate a political leader (such as Hariri) and many bystanders have been killed in collateral damage. The accusations from Western liberals that the IDF kills Palestinian civilians is laughable in comparion to these megadeaths. Not only does the IDF in fact try to avoid casualties (and often calls off strikes if it cannot), but the numbers involved are miniscule. How many Palestinians have been killed since the War of 1948, probably a few thousand, compared to ca. 120,000 already killed in Darfur. If you believe that God has ordained your victory, then any number of casualties are acceptable.
What is sure is that Pakistan is a State that is mired in violence and democracy has very little chance to emerge there. This assassination does not augur well for a pro-Western Government there.

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