Sunday, January 13, 2008

The sycophant and the dreamer

After his meeting with Bush a few days ago Netanyahu called Olmert a "sycophant" of the US President, and I think he was right. Olmert appears to be smiling and agreeing with Bush at every turn. Even when Bush said that Israel must end the "occupation" and stop all "settlement building" on the West Bank, Olmert made no public disagreement. The fact is that from 2001 Israel gave up the populated cities of the West Bank to the PA, and in 2005 removed all settlements and forces from Gaza. And what did we get for it, a renewed intifada and rockets every day into the Negev.
They are calling Gaza the "invisible elephant in the room" because noone talks about it, neither the Americans nor the Israelis nor the Palestinians. That is because it doesn't fit into the neat equation that Bush has dreamed up, namely that once progress is made and the West Bank is both prosperous and peaceful (what he calls "spiritual progress"), the Gazans will automatically change their minds and instead of supporting the extremists of Hamas, they will transer their loyalty to Fatah and Abbas. This is pure wishful thinking and pie in the sky. Bush and many others fail to realize that the basis of the Palestinian antagonism to Israel (and Jews) is not based on economic considerations. It is based on ideology, namely religion, nationalism and hatred. These are similar to that manifested by the Nazis and are not subject to being bought out.
Bush made a blunder at the dinner the night before his departure, when he met members of the Coalition, and he asked Eli Yishai, the leader of Shas, and Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, to "look after our friend Olmert," in other words don't bolt the coalition and cause Olmert's Govt. to fall, but stick with him. This is unacceptable interference in Israeli internal affairs, just as if Olmert were visiting the US and advised some Senators to support a particular candidate for President. It would cause a furore, but here it was glossed over.
On the positive side, Olmert stood firm against direct criticism by Secty. of State Rice that building in Har Homa is not "a settlement" but is in fact a suburb of Jerusalem and is not subject to any agreement, including the Road Map, however many times Abbas complains about it. Also, in private discussions, Olmert and his team pointed out that giving up the "occupation" of the West Bank is contingent on a cessation of terrorism as required in the Road Map and Annapolis agreement, i.e. that Israeli security comes first!
Another positive outcome was Bush's restatement that there would have to be alterations in the West Bank borders to accomodate "current realities," i.e. the existence of densely populated Israeli towns within the West Bank (such as Ma'aleh Adumim, Kfar Etzion, Ariel and Efrat). There is no way that Israel will give up these towns, and they constitute only ca. 5% of the area of the West Bank.
Bush also mentioned "compensation" as a payment to Palestinian "refugees" in Arab countries in place of their "right of return." If he can persuade the Arab countries to support this alternative he may be on the right track to improve the lot of the Palestinians who have been kept in a limbo of camps and welfare for 60 years as a political weapon against Israel. However, it is unlikely that the Islamists and the nationalists will easily accept this rational solution.
For all the criticism of Bush in general (he is "stupid") and in particular (his views on the Middle East are sophomoric), nevertheless as President of the USA he came first to Israel, made a very positive impression, and while here also went to Yad Vashem at his own request and seemed genuinely moved. It may be that he is raising Palestinian expectations and is partaking in the dangerous game of placating the extremists and adding to the illusion of a Palestinian State that will be neither democratic nor peaceful, but rather another terrorist entity, right next to Israel. For that he would certainly go down in history, although not as he expects.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home