Deterrence?
How can the IDF maintain its deterrent capability relative to Israel's enemies if the Govt. continues to threaten action and does not act?
The fact is that the Olmert Govt. has stated many times over a period of years in response to continuous rocket, mortar and other attacks from Gaza that it will act. Last week after another Israeli was killed, Min. of Defense Barak threatened a major response soon, but within a few days he changed his mind. Instead a representative was sent to continue negotiations in Cairo, but came back without any truce agreed upon. The Egyptian intermediary announced that Hamas would not agree to condition the release of Cpl. Schalit on the ceasefire, while Israel had announced that this was a condition of any ceasefire. So the game goes on, Hamas realizes that it can continue attacking us with impunity while stringing us along in useless and futile negotiations.
This weekend in an attempt to carry out a large terrorist attack (before any possible ceasefire), Hamas bombarded Israel with ca. 50 mortars and 20 rockets, and then drove an armoured bulldozer to the border in order to break thru and allow the entry into Israel of jeeps filled with explosives. However, an alert IDF guard spotted the bulldozer and it was destroyed by tank shells. So Hamas has it both ways, continuing to attack us while running out the negotiations. This whole process gives Hamas credibility on the year's anniversary of its takeover of Gaza, that Israel is actually negotiating with them, and they consider this in itself a victory. Incidentally, the house that blew up in Gaza killing a Hamas leader and his whole family was not blown up by the IAF as they first claimed (and as the BBC reported), but later Hamas admitted that it had been a "work accident."
The IDF has in fact lost its deterrent capability and this has serious consequences. When Hizbollah, at Iran's insistence no doubt, crossed the Lebanese border into Israel in 2006, killed 8 IDF soldiers (they tend to be forgotten) and kidnapped two (Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser) they did so because they did not fear the consequences. Although the IDF did not achieve its objectives in the 2nd Lebanon War, nevertheless the destruction wrought by the IAF on south Beirut and the Shia heartland in Lebanon was enough to make them think hard again before launching another such attack. But, the fact that they were able to bring the north of Israel to a standstill and that the IDF did not stop the rockets and the subsequent continuous bombardment of the Negev without any major response, seems to indicate that the Govt. of Israel has lost its nerve and will not strike back again. Anyway, this is no doubt how the aggressors see it on the other side of the border. Whether or not this is due to the policy or the weakness of the Olmert Govt. is unknown.
Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah in Lebanon are stockpiling rockets with a long enough range to hit Tel Aviv and the most densely populated parts of Israel. Since the IDF could not stop the rockets from Lebanon in 2006 and now from Gaza what chance is there that they could stop them if a huge shower of long-range rockets rained down on Israel? Perhaps we shall see.
The fact is that the Olmert Govt. has stated many times over a period of years in response to continuous rocket, mortar and other attacks from Gaza that it will act. Last week after another Israeli was killed, Min. of Defense Barak threatened a major response soon, but within a few days he changed his mind. Instead a representative was sent to continue negotiations in Cairo, but came back without any truce agreed upon. The Egyptian intermediary announced that Hamas would not agree to condition the release of Cpl. Schalit on the ceasefire, while Israel had announced that this was a condition of any ceasefire. So the game goes on, Hamas realizes that it can continue attacking us with impunity while stringing us along in useless and futile negotiations.
This weekend in an attempt to carry out a large terrorist attack (before any possible ceasefire), Hamas bombarded Israel with ca. 50 mortars and 20 rockets, and then drove an armoured bulldozer to the border in order to break thru and allow the entry into Israel of jeeps filled with explosives. However, an alert IDF guard spotted the bulldozer and it was destroyed by tank shells. So Hamas has it both ways, continuing to attack us while running out the negotiations. This whole process gives Hamas credibility on the year's anniversary of its takeover of Gaza, that Israel is actually negotiating with them, and they consider this in itself a victory. Incidentally, the house that blew up in Gaza killing a Hamas leader and his whole family was not blown up by the IAF as they first claimed (and as the BBC reported), but later Hamas admitted that it had been a "work accident."
The IDF has in fact lost its deterrent capability and this has serious consequences. When Hizbollah, at Iran's insistence no doubt, crossed the Lebanese border into Israel in 2006, killed 8 IDF soldiers (they tend to be forgotten) and kidnapped two (Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser) they did so because they did not fear the consequences. Although the IDF did not achieve its objectives in the 2nd Lebanon War, nevertheless the destruction wrought by the IAF on south Beirut and the Shia heartland in Lebanon was enough to make them think hard again before launching another such attack. But, the fact that they were able to bring the north of Israel to a standstill and that the IDF did not stop the rockets and the subsequent continuous bombardment of the Negev without any major response, seems to indicate that the Govt. of Israel has lost its nerve and will not strike back again. Anyway, this is no doubt how the aggressors see it on the other side of the border. Whether or not this is due to the policy or the weakness of the Olmert Govt. is unknown.
Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah in Lebanon are stockpiling rockets with a long enough range to hit Tel Aviv and the most densely populated parts of Israel. Since the IDF could not stop the rockets from Lebanon in 2006 and now from Gaza what chance is there that they could stop them if a huge shower of long-range rockets rained down on Israel? Perhaps we shall see.
posted by Jack Cohen at 6:53 PM
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