Political mess
The position of the Kadima Government of PM Olmert and FM Livni is that Israel should make major concessions to the PA leadership of Pres. Abbas and PM Fayyed by the end of the year. Livni is expected to win the upcoming Kadima Primary in two days and hence to succeed Olmert. This policy of concessions to the Palestinians follows the lead of former PM Sharon, the founder of the Kadima Party. This policy continues notwithstanding the imminent resignation of Olmert and the probable resignation of both Fayyed and Abbas within a year. The problem with any such concessions is not only that the Kadima Govt. does not have the moral authority and mandate to make them, but also to do so to a defunct PA Govt. is self-defeating.
Noone knows what will happen in the PA when Abbas and Fayyed resign at the end of 2008, although Abbas claims that the constitution allows him an extra year in office. Obviously Hamas deny that, and there is likely to be violence between Fatah and Hamas on the West Bank before the situation is resolved. Israel has said it will not intervene in intra-Palestinian violence, but at the same time the IDF is taking anti-Hamas actions, arresting Hamas leaders in the West Bank and killing known terrorists. It is unclear if there is/will be actual cooperation between the Fatah/PA security forces and the IDF. Even if there is, and that might prevent the overthrow of Fatah on the West Bank, there is no guarantee that such a coalition might cause a negative reaction in Fatah forces that might realign themselves with Hamas. So under such circumstances the outcome is unpredictable.
Yesterday Livni, who is in charge of the negotiuations with the PA, announced that she is prepared to share Jerusalem with the PA, while at the same time Olmert denies that such negotiations are ongoing. Today Olmert issued a statement saying that he is prepared to hand over 98.1% of the West Bank to the PA, and he is going to tell Abbas this tomorrow when they meet. There is no doubt that Secty. of State Condy Rice and EU ME coordinator Javier Solana, who is currently visiting here, have been putting pressure on Olmert to resolve the situation by the end of the year. But, at the same time Likud Opposition leader Bibi Netanyahu has openly criticized Olmert and Livni for these statements.
The Kadima Primaries are due in two days, and even if Livni wins, her path to becoming PM may be blocked unless she can form a new coalition Govt. Shas have announced that they will no longer be part of a Kadima Govt. that negotiates on dividing Jerusalem. But, this may be just another tactic in raising the price for their joining the coalition. If no new coalition can be formed then Olmert will remain caretaker PM at least until next April even if elections are called soon. What a mess!
Noone knows what will happen in the PA when Abbas and Fayyed resign at the end of 2008, although Abbas claims that the constitution allows him an extra year in office. Obviously Hamas deny that, and there is likely to be violence between Fatah and Hamas on the West Bank before the situation is resolved. Israel has said it will not intervene in intra-Palestinian violence, but at the same time the IDF is taking anti-Hamas actions, arresting Hamas leaders in the West Bank and killing known terrorists. It is unclear if there is/will be actual cooperation between the Fatah/PA security forces and the IDF. Even if there is, and that might prevent the overthrow of Fatah on the West Bank, there is no guarantee that such a coalition might cause a negative reaction in Fatah forces that might realign themselves with Hamas. So under such circumstances the outcome is unpredictable.
Yesterday Livni, who is in charge of the negotiuations with the PA, announced that she is prepared to share Jerusalem with the PA, while at the same time Olmert denies that such negotiations are ongoing. Today Olmert issued a statement saying that he is prepared to hand over 98.1% of the West Bank to the PA, and he is going to tell Abbas this tomorrow when they meet. There is no doubt that Secty. of State Condy Rice and EU ME coordinator Javier Solana, who is currently visiting here, have been putting pressure on Olmert to resolve the situation by the end of the year. But, at the same time Likud Opposition leader Bibi Netanyahu has openly criticized Olmert and Livni for these statements.
The Kadima Primaries are due in two days, and even if Livni wins, her path to becoming PM may be blocked unless she can form a new coalition Govt. Shas have announced that they will no longer be part of a Kadima Govt. that negotiates on dividing Jerusalem. But, this may be just another tactic in raising the price for their joining the coalition. If no new coalition can be formed then Olmert will remain caretaker PM at least until next April even if elections are called soon. What a mess!
posted by Jack Cohen at 12:13 PM
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