Attack on Iran?
Last Thursday, a Jerusalem Post headline declared that Israel was preparing plans for attacks against targets in Iran without US support. This would be a great gamble for Israel, since the most direct way to get to Iran is over Iraq, and therefore thru air space controlled by the USAF, and in order to do this the IAF would need the codes to allow access. If the US does not agree to an Israeli attack, or is not consulted (possibly for security reasons and possibly so as not to be told "no") then any counter-attack from Iran would not result in US support for Israel.
Why might the Israeli Defense establishment advise an independent attack soon. Maybe because they know that Pres. Bush will not allow a US attack before his term ends, and they fear that Pres. Obama will not agree to an attack while he pursues his declared policy of "talking" to Iran. Since the Europeans have been "talking" to Iran for 8 years with no progress, and since Obama has apparently nothing new to offer (or threaten) then why would Iran do anything other than "talk" to him but continue their declared policy of developing nuclear weapons. According to Israeli estimates the Iranians will have enough centrifuges to obtain enough fissionable material to make a true bomb in 1-2 years! Can Israel afford to wait?
If the asnwer to this is "no", then clearly the IAF must have contingency plans for such an attack. Leaking the existence of such plans in itself may be a threat to Iran. But, in fact Israel has the capability to attack Iran and security estimates are that Iran is in no position to mount any counter-attack. It's Army cannot cross the distance from Iran thru Iraq or Jordan and the missiles they have are not so accurate and would themselves no doubt be a prime target for any IAF attack!
I calculated that there are three main ways for the IAF to reach Iran, the first via Turkey (although Turkey has said that it would not allow its air space to be used for an attack on Iran), this would be ca. 2000 km. Thru Jordan/Iraq to Iran would be the shortest distance 1600 km, and thru the Red Sea and across Saudi Arabia to southern Iran would be ca. 2200 km. These are great distances and would require in-air refueling, something that the IAF has been practising over the Mediterranean. Also, the IAF now has some stealth aircraft that would not show up on radar, as well as "bunker-buster" bombs. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, but if the IAF does attack you can be sure it will be because the Israeli Govt. fears that it has no alternative.
Why might the Israeli Defense establishment advise an independent attack soon. Maybe because they know that Pres. Bush will not allow a US attack before his term ends, and they fear that Pres. Obama will not agree to an attack while he pursues his declared policy of "talking" to Iran. Since the Europeans have been "talking" to Iran for 8 years with no progress, and since Obama has apparently nothing new to offer (or threaten) then why would Iran do anything other than "talk" to him but continue their declared policy of developing nuclear weapons. According to Israeli estimates the Iranians will have enough centrifuges to obtain enough fissionable material to make a true bomb in 1-2 years! Can Israel afford to wait?
If the asnwer to this is "no", then clearly the IAF must have contingency plans for such an attack. Leaking the existence of such plans in itself may be a threat to Iran. But, in fact Israel has the capability to attack Iran and security estimates are that Iran is in no position to mount any counter-attack. It's Army cannot cross the distance from Iran thru Iraq or Jordan and the missiles they have are not so accurate and would themselves no doubt be a prime target for any IAF attack!
I calculated that there are three main ways for the IAF to reach Iran, the first via Turkey (although Turkey has said that it would not allow its air space to be used for an attack on Iran), this would be ca. 2000 km. Thru Jordan/Iraq to Iran would be the shortest distance 1600 km, and thru the Red Sea and across Saudi Arabia to southern Iran would be ca. 2200 km. These are great distances and would require in-air refueling, something that the IAF has been practising over the Mediterranean. Also, the IAF now has some stealth aircraft that would not show up on radar, as well as "bunker-buster" bombs. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, but if the IAF does attack you can be sure it will be because the Israeli Govt. fears that it has no alternative.
posted by Jack Cohen at 4:32 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home