The Israeli elections
Because of the war in Gaza we have had the briefest and least exciting election campaign in Israel's history. There were no debates of the top three candidates for PM, and very little TV coverage. In the Israeli election next Tuesday, Feb 10, there are 33 parties running, yes, 33! However, of these only 12 are expected to garner enough support (threshold of 2%) to be elected to the 18th Knesset. And of these, only the 5 main parties will form the Goverment.
They are:
Likud: leading in the polls with 26-28 seats with Bibi Netanyahu probably forming the next Government as PM.
Kadima: at 22-23 seats expected to lead the opposition, with or without Tzipi Livni.
Israel Beitanu: 16-18 seats for Avigdor Lieberman's right wing party that has garnered Russian and Hebrew support, and will join a Likud coalition
Labor: 15-16 seats for a much reduced Labour, under Ehud Barak, current Min. of Defense
Shas: 10 seats, Sephardic religious party that has indicated that they will join a Likud coalition
Then there are:
Arab parties: Balad (2-4), United Arab list (3-4) and Hadash (Communist) 4
Meretz: Far left (5-6)
Far right parties: Habayit Hayehudi (3-4); National Union (merger of 4 smaller parties) (3-4)
United Torah Judaism: Religious party (5)
The overall results give the right wing coalition of Likud/Israel Beitanu/Shas/UTJ/HH/NU an estimated majority of ca. 63 seats (taking the minimum estimate), while the left coalition of Kadima/Labor/Meretz/Arabs would have an opposition of ca. 53 seats (although the total is 120). But, it is much more complex than that, because Netanyahu has said he wants to form the widest coalition possible, and this may include Labor, if Barak gets a sufficiently high position (some have even mentioned Defense Minister again). The Arabs have declared a boycott of the elections (because of the Gaza war) and so their proportion of the vote may be down (good!).
Among those that are not expected to be elected, the weirdest combination is the Green Leaf Party, that favors legalization of Marijuana, with the Pensioners Party, that is on it's way out. Another is the new Green Environmental Party of Alon Tal together with the pro-Labor religious Meimad Party of Rabbi Melchior, talk about a two-headed beast.
The only major party that has introduced a bill to reorganize the electoral system is Likud that wants to introduce a 50:50 mix of local representational and proportional seats. Labor also supported this. But, once in office one never knows if this will be forgotten in the rush to take care of more urgent matters, such as the economy and security.
The major difference from the current/past Kadima Government will be that Likud has pledged not to have any more retreats and not to divide Jerusalem, to destroy Hamas if there are any more attacks, to drop the "land for peace" formula that has not worked and that has caused many deaths, and to adopt a bottom-up economic and educational program for the Palestinians. Netanyahu has made dealing with Iran the primary focus of his foreign policy. So hopefully we will see a change from the failed and erratic policies of the past Government.
They are:
Likud: leading in the polls with 26-28 seats with Bibi Netanyahu probably forming the next Government as PM.
Kadima: at 22-23 seats expected to lead the opposition, with or without Tzipi Livni.
Israel Beitanu: 16-18 seats for Avigdor Lieberman's right wing party that has garnered Russian and Hebrew support, and will join a Likud coalition
Labor: 15-16 seats for a much reduced Labour, under Ehud Barak, current Min. of Defense
Shas: 10 seats, Sephardic religious party that has indicated that they will join a Likud coalition
Then there are:
Arab parties: Balad (2-4), United Arab list (3-4) and Hadash (Communist) 4
Meretz: Far left (5-6)
Far right parties: Habayit Hayehudi (3-4); National Union (merger of 4 smaller parties) (3-4)
United Torah Judaism: Religious party (5)
The overall results give the right wing coalition of Likud/Israel Beitanu/Shas/UTJ/HH/NU an estimated majority of ca. 63 seats (taking the minimum estimate), while the left coalition of Kadima/Labor/Meretz/Arabs would have an opposition of ca. 53 seats (although the total is 120). But, it is much more complex than that, because Netanyahu has said he wants to form the widest coalition possible, and this may include Labor, if Barak gets a sufficiently high position (some have even mentioned Defense Minister again). The Arabs have declared a boycott of the elections (because of the Gaza war) and so their proportion of the vote may be down (good!).
Among those that are not expected to be elected, the weirdest combination is the Green Leaf Party, that favors legalization of Marijuana, with the Pensioners Party, that is on it's way out. Another is the new Green Environmental Party of Alon Tal together with the pro-Labor religious Meimad Party of Rabbi Melchior, talk about a two-headed beast.
The only major party that has introduced a bill to reorganize the electoral system is Likud that wants to introduce a 50:50 mix of local representational and proportional seats. Labor also supported this. But, once in office one never knows if this will be forgotten in the rush to take care of more urgent matters, such as the economy and security.
The major difference from the current/past Kadima Government will be that Likud has pledged not to have any more retreats and not to divide Jerusalem, to destroy Hamas if there are any more attacks, to drop the "land for peace" formula that has not worked and that has caused many deaths, and to adopt a bottom-up economic and educational program for the Palestinians. Netanyahu has made dealing with Iran the primary focus of his foreign policy. So hopefully we will see a change from the failed and erratic policies of the past Government.
posted by Jack Cohen at 8:16 PM
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