Thursday, March 26, 2009

Appeasement?

Pres. Barack Obama's long awaited opening of his dialog with Iran came last week in the form of a direct appeal to the Iranian people on the occasion of their New Year (Nowruz). While commending the Iranians on their rich history, culture and heritage, he criticized their leaders for taking the path of violence and hatred. He said that he wished to improve relations with Iran, and thought Iran could rejoin the community of nations, but this could only happen if Iran took the path of peace and international cooperation.
In response, the Supreme Iranian Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, gave a sermon that in effect rejected Obama's speech as empty words. Only if the US changes it's policies of opposing Iran's legitimate development of peaceful nuclear energy and stops supporting Israel, would Iran then consider improving relations with the US.
In other words, the US must change its policies to those dictated by Iran, but the US cannot dictate policy changes to Iran. This all reminds us of the situation before WWII, when PM Neville Chamberlain went to visit Adolf Hitler, Chancellor of Germany, in 1938, and came back waving a piece of paper and telling the world that "Herr Hitler is an honorable man." This was the policy of appeasement, when the Western allies (in this case Britain) assumed the best, while the other side lied and prepared for war. We are in much the same situation now with regard to Iran, but now it's Obama who is metaphorically waving a rolled umbrella and saying how nice the Iranians really are.
It hasn't got quite as bad as that yet, the official US policy is still that Iran is illegally developing nuclear weapons and is threatening to destroy Israel, as well as threatening US interests in the Gulf region (US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan) and the wider region. Among those not happy with this attempted opening to Iran are not only Israel, but also the major Sunni Muslim States, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Guilf States (Kuwait, the UAE, Oman, etc.) The hegemonic expansionism of Shi'ite Iran in the region threatens not only their stability, but the very nature of their religious culture.
On the other hand, the Obama Adminsistration has gone on record as renewing the current economic sanctions against Iran, and has criticized the British Government for apparently agreeing to meet with the "political wing" of Hizbollah. Everyone knows that Hizbollah is a fully owned proxy of Iran and there is no distinction between its political and military wings, it's not another version of the IRA, which did have such wings.
It is estimated variously that Iran has another 1-3 years to develop a nuclear bomb and the means to deliver it. They are continually celebrating their advancements, and increasing the number of centrifuges they have to separate fissile uranium. However, Pres. Ahmedinejad faces a new election this year in June 2009 and is currently quite unpopular, mainly due to the economic slump in Iran, while he is busy spending money on arms and weapons development. However, the opposition reform elements have managed to put up a consensus candidate against him, former PM Mousavi (former PM Khatami dropped out to avoid splitting the vote). However, he is not thought to have much chance mainly because the Revolutionary Guard supports Ahmedinejad, and they have a fgat deal of money to throw around to support his campaign. The best outcome would be if Mousavi were elected by a landslide, but don't hold your breath.

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