Harbingers
It was announced that Saudi Arabia and Jordan, in consultations with Egypt, the PA and Syria, are considering changes to their peace plan to accomodate Pres. Obama in his aim to bring about a renewal of the Israel-Palestine peace process. One of the Arab conditions was that Israel accept the Palestinian "right of return," that is of all Palestinians to all of Palestine/Israel. That is clearly an agreement breaker because there is no way that Israel is going to allow millions of Palestinians to "return" to Israel where they haven't lived for 61 years and when they are hostile to Israel. It would be commiting suicide for Israel.
Now apparently after King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and King Abdullah of Jordan met with Pres. Obama, they are considering a change in this clause, namely that Palestinian refugees would be given a choice of remaining in the countries where they reside and becoming citizens there, or returning to an eventual Palestinian State. It should be noted that strictly speaking the Palestinians are not "refugees," since under international law only the actual person who leaves or is forced out of his/her country is a refugee, not their offspring. Also, Palestinians who moved to Jordan are in fact already Jordanian citizens, Jordan was the only Arab country that gave them citizenship.
To the best of my knowledge, this is the first time that the Arabs have shown a possibility of compromise in order to accomodate the known limitations of Israeli interests. Now if only they can agree to accept less than 100% of the West Bank as the future "Palestinian State," then a compromise could be reached to allow the densely populated regions (ca. 5%) to remain in Israel, with possible exchange of Israeli territory which is densely populated by Arabs. This would overcome stumbling blocks in the progress towards peace. Obama apparently also asked them to come up with a timeline for recognition of Israel by Arab countries after an agreement is actually reached, rather than leaving it open and possibly unfulfilled.
Have you ever heard of Gamal Mubarak, the 45 year old son of Pres. Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. There are many rumors and articles about his being groomed as his father's replacement since 2000, when he was appointed as General Secretary of the National Democratic Party. Since then he has hovered in the background, raising certain touchy questions. Does Egypt want to become another Arab state where a dynasty controls power, such as Syria, where Hafez Assad passed power to his son Bashar? In the Egyptian constitution there is provision for a Vice President, but Hosni Mubarak has never appointed one. So the succession to him is unclear and he is now 81 years old!
Both Mubaraks have denied that he is being groomed as the successor, and Hosni has said that " Egypt is not a monarchy." But, with the Muslim Brotherhood looming ever in the background too, what will become of Egypt when Mubarak must go or dies? This is a signicant question for Israel, maybe even more so than the Palestinian or Iranian situations. Egypt is the largest Arab State by population, and although the Israel-Egyptian peace treaty has lasted for 30 years, in Egypt there has always been strong opposition to it, and it is only the firm grip that Mubarak and the NDP has on power that has prevented any breakdowns. Although Gamal appears to be both more liberal and is not a military man like his father, and would be expected to be more pro-Western, the same was felt about Bashar Assad when he was first appointed President of Syria. But, Egypt is not Syria and we can expect a great deal of turmoil before the succession becomes clear.
Now apparently after King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and King Abdullah of Jordan met with Pres. Obama, they are considering a change in this clause, namely that Palestinian refugees would be given a choice of remaining in the countries where they reside and becoming citizens there, or returning to an eventual Palestinian State. It should be noted that strictly speaking the Palestinians are not "refugees," since under international law only the actual person who leaves or is forced out of his/her country is a refugee, not their offspring. Also, Palestinians who moved to Jordan are in fact already Jordanian citizens, Jordan was the only Arab country that gave them citizenship.
To the best of my knowledge, this is the first time that the Arabs have shown a possibility of compromise in order to accomodate the known limitations of Israeli interests. Now if only they can agree to accept less than 100% of the West Bank as the future "Palestinian State," then a compromise could be reached to allow the densely populated regions (ca. 5%) to remain in Israel, with possible exchange of Israeli territory which is densely populated by Arabs. This would overcome stumbling blocks in the progress towards peace. Obama apparently also asked them to come up with a timeline for recognition of Israel by Arab countries after an agreement is actually reached, rather than leaving it open and possibly unfulfilled.
Have you ever heard of Gamal Mubarak, the 45 year old son of Pres. Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. There are many rumors and articles about his being groomed as his father's replacement since 2000, when he was appointed as General Secretary of the National Democratic Party. Since then he has hovered in the background, raising certain touchy questions. Does Egypt want to become another Arab state where a dynasty controls power, such as Syria, where Hafez Assad passed power to his son Bashar? In the Egyptian constitution there is provision for a Vice President, but Hosni Mubarak has never appointed one. So the succession to him is unclear and he is now 81 years old!
Both Mubaraks have denied that he is being groomed as the successor, and Hosni has said that " Egypt is not a monarchy." But, with the Muslim Brotherhood looming ever in the background too, what will become of Egypt when Mubarak must go or dies? This is a signicant question for Israel, maybe even more so than the Palestinian or Iranian situations. Egypt is the largest Arab State by population, and although the Israel-Egyptian peace treaty has lasted for 30 years, in Egypt there has always been strong opposition to it, and it is only the firm grip that Mubarak and the NDP has on power that has prevented any breakdowns. Although Gamal appears to be both more liberal and is not a military man like his father, and would be expected to be more pro-Western, the same was felt about Bashar Assad when he was first appointed President of Syria. But, Egypt is not Syria and we can expect a great deal of turmoil before the succession becomes clear.
posted by Jack Cohen at 1:18 PM
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