Lebanon
How does the pro-Syrian opposition in Lebanon send a message to the pro-Western parties that scored a majority in the recent election? They fire several rockets into Israel of course, as they did on Friday. This is their way of showing that they are serious about their political demands, and if they are not met they will instigate another war with Israel. The rockets landed in the western Galilee, but fortunately there were no casualties and Israel fired back.
Pres. Suleiman of Lebanon had asked Sa'ad Hariri, the son of the assassinated leader Rafik Hariri, to form a new Government as Prime Minister. Hizbollah, that received a minority of the vote, was given 10 places for Ministers in the new Government. This is far short of the 15 they would need to be able to block any legislation they dislike. It should be remembered that they had negotiated by force a veto in the previous government of PM Fuad Siniora. They don't want to lose that chokehold on politics in Lebanon, so they caused Hariri's attempts to form a new Government to fail. Without any alternative Suleiman has once again asked Hariri to form a Government. Lebanon has not had a working government for 3 months.
If this goes on there are two possibilites, either Lebanon will once again fall into crisis and civil war, or Hizbollah will cause another war with Israel. This serves its purpose because a war unites most factions in Lebanon behind Hizbollah as the leader of the "resistance" to Israel in Lebanon. The question is for how long will the Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druse allow the Shia of Hizbollah to control Lebanese politics and manipulate them? Since Hizbollah has the largest and best equipped army in Lebanon there is not much chance of changing the situation. Although Hariri is supposed to be pro-Western, he has stated that his Government (if it is ever formed) will side with Hizbollah if there is another war with Israel. That means that as far as Israel is concerned there is no clear distinction between Hizbollah and any likely Government in Lebanon. In any case, any sovereign government is responsible for all attacks frrm its territory.
Instead of focussing on Israel's building on the West Bank (that is a miniscule problem in the Middle East) and trying to cozy up to Pres. Assad of Syria, Pres. Obama should be trying to save democracy in Lebanon and to diminish Hizbollah's power there. This would also help to avoid another civil war and/or another war with Israel. But, no Obama has his eye on the wrong prize.
Pres. Suleiman of Lebanon had asked Sa'ad Hariri, the son of the assassinated leader Rafik Hariri, to form a new Government as Prime Minister. Hizbollah, that received a minority of the vote, was given 10 places for Ministers in the new Government. This is far short of the 15 they would need to be able to block any legislation they dislike. It should be remembered that they had negotiated by force a veto in the previous government of PM Fuad Siniora. They don't want to lose that chokehold on politics in Lebanon, so they caused Hariri's attempts to form a new Government to fail. Without any alternative Suleiman has once again asked Hariri to form a Government. Lebanon has not had a working government for 3 months.
If this goes on there are two possibilites, either Lebanon will once again fall into crisis and civil war, or Hizbollah will cause another war with Israel. This serves its purpose because a war unites most factions in Lebanon behind Hizbollah as the leader of the "resistance" to Israel in Lebanon. The question is for how long will the Sunni Muslims, Christians and Druse allow the Shia of Hizbollah to control Lebanese politics and manipulate them? Since Hizbollah has the largest and best equipped army in Lebanon there is not much chance of changing the situation. Although Hariri is supposed to be pro-Western, he has stated that his Government (if it is ever formed) will side with Hizbollah if there is another war with Israel. That means that as far as Israel is concerned there is no clear distinction between Hizbollah and any likely Government in Lebanon. In any case, any sovereign government is responsible for all attacks frrm its territory.
Instead of focussing on Israel's building on the West Bank (that is a miniscule problem in the Middle East) and trying to cozy up to Pres. Assad of Syria, Pres. Obama should be trying to save democracy in Lebanon and to diminish Hizbollah's power there. This would also help to avoid another civil war and/or another war with Israel. But, no Obama has his eye on the wrong prize.
posted by Jack Cohen at 7:36 AM
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