Sunday, October 25, 2009

PA elections?

After a year of fruitless negotiations mediated by Egypt and numerous attempts to plaster over their fundamental differences, Fatah PA leader Mahmoud Abbas has called PA elections at the end of January. Hamas immediately rejected this decision and announced that they will hold their own independent elections in Gaza. Thus, there will continue to be two PA entities, separate and mutually antagonistic.
It is reported that Abbas called Pres. Obama before making the final decision about the elections. This too would not endear him to Hamas because one difference between the two Palestines is that while Abbas is ready to use the Americans to bring pressure to bear on Israel, Hamas rejects all contact with the US and is loyal to Iran which supports and trains its terrorist cadres. While there is an effective ceasefire at present between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, without an actual agreement, nevertheless there are occasional rockets fired over the border and the IAF attacks weapons factories and tunnels in Gaza.
There are two Israeli views regarding the situation of the schism between the two Palestine entities, the right regard it as a good thing that the Palestinians are split and therefore there can be no agreement or formation of a Palestinian state without half of them. As long as Hamas is bottled up in Gaza and is unable to take over the whole of the PA including the West Bank, there can be no successsful peace negotiations. The left regard the fissure within Palestine society as a hindrance to peace and so wish that it could be healed.
If there are elections on the West Bank, and if Fatah/Abbas are duly re-elected, then the schism will become more institutionalized. However, if Abbas is defeated in the elections and Hamas is preferred, then there will be a period of instability, and it would be greatly in Israel's interest to ensure that Hamas does not take over the West Bank. If they did this could pose great danger to Israel, with its population centers within easy rocket range. Until the election results are resolved there can be no advance in any peace process, with Abbas clinging on to survival for dear life.
Meanwhile Israel is criticized by the left for two reasons, first the so-called "occupation" and second the "blockade of Gaza." Both of these polemics are untrue! Israel completely left Gaza and also withdrew from the PA, otherwise they could not have elections there. Also, Israel supplies Gaza with necessary humanitarian aid, including water, food, medicines and electricity, a situation which is almost unique in history. It is Egypt that completely blockades Gaza, only allowing entry of goods and arms illegally thru the tunnels under the Philadelphi corridor, the Egypt-Gaza border.
Israel is also facilitating the economic development of the West Bank and has removed most of the checkpoints that restricted Palestinian movement. The level of terrorism has been almost completely removed, partly because of the Security Fence and the activities of the Israel security services, and partly because the Abbas Government is not actively pursuing terrorism at the present time. However, the future is uncertain, and the Netanyahu Government would do well to be prepared for a sudden change in the current relatively quiet situation on both the Gaza and West Bank fronts.

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