Iran unraveling?
The continuing riots in Iran after the death and funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, and the current 40-day period of the Ashura festival of mourning (over the death of Imam Hussein, grandson of the prophet Mohammed) that is specific to Shia Islam, may signal the beginning of the unravelling of the Iranian regime.
After the election six months ago, that was apparently fixed by the regime, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Pres. Ahmedinejad, supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its strike force the Basij, the anti-regime rioting seemed to have died down. This was partly as a result of the arrest and repression of the opposition. But, now it has flared up again following the death of Montazeri, a respected religious leader who has recently been criticizing the "dictatorship."
Whether it will continue and whether or not it will cause the downfall of the current Iranian regime is unknown. There are powerful forces at play. Iran is predominantly a young country, the average age has gone down significantly and the majority of Iranians no longer remember the revolution brought about by Ayatollah Khomenei more than 30 years ago. The current repression and backwardness of the regime has caused a major shift in loyalty of the Iranian population. The regime has declared a state of emergency over the continued rioting, and during the rioting at least 5 people have been killed and hundreds injured. It is now a matter of time before there is a major clash that will tell the outcome of the uprising.
There is of course a lot at stake. For the Revolutionary Guard, it is not only political considerations, but they now contol a major part of the Iranian economy and so there are billions of dollars worth of property and industry at stake. For the regime, the issue at stake is whether or not there can be a Supreme Leader who can dictate terms to the rest of society and limit the democratic process.
But, before we in Israel and the West start to celebrate this possible overthrow of the Khamanei/ Ahmedinejad Government, we should be aware that this is a clash between an ultraconservative regime and its conservative opposition. While freedom of choice is indeed involved, the opposition is by no means liberal and democratic. If the regime were indeed overthrown, the likelihood that the opposition would continue to develop nuclear weapons is indeed high..
The response of the Obama Administration to the riots after the elections was very cool. In fact, the White House statement at the time mentioned the "respect" that the Adminsitration had for the regime. Now a much stronger statement was issued that criticizes the regime's "violent and unjust oppression of the civilian population." The West is collectively holding it breath and waiting to see whether or not the opposition has the staying power to really overthrow the regime. If so then we can look for an improvement in the situation, but to what extent remains to be seen.
After the election six months ago, that was apparently fixed by the regime, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Pres. Ahmedinejad, supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its strike force the Basij, the anti-regime rioting seemed to have died down. This was partly as a result of the arrest and repression of the opposition. But, now it has flared up again following the death of Montazeri, a respected religious leader who has recently been criticizing the "dictatorship."
Whether it will continue and whether or not it will cause the downfall of the current Iranian regime is unknown. There are powerful forces at play. Iran is predominantly a young country, the average age has gone down significantly and the majority of Iranians no longer remember the revolution brought about by Ayatollah Khomenei more than 30 years ago. The current repression and backwardness of the regime has caused a major shift in loyalty of the Iranian population. The regime has declared a state of emergency over the continued rioting, and during the rioting at least 5 people have been killed and hundreds injured. It is now a matter of time before there is a major clash that will tell the outcome of the uprising.
There is of course a lot at stake. For the Revolutionary Guard, it is not only political considerations, but they now contol a major part of the Iranian economy and so there are billions of dollars worth of property and industry at stake. For the regime, the issue at stake is whether or not there can be a Supreme Leader who can dictate terms to the rest of society and limit the democratic process.
But, before we in Israel and the West start to celebrate this possible overthrow of the Khamanei/ Ahmedinejad Government, we should be aware that this is a clash between an ultraconservative regime and its conservative opposition. While freedom of choice is indeed involved, the opposition is by no means liberal and democratic. If the regime were indeed overthrown, the likelihood that the opposition would continue to develop nuclear weapons is indeed high..
The response of the Obama Administration to the riots after the elections was very cool. In fact, the White House statement at the time mentioned the "respect" that the Adminsitration had for the regime. Now a much stronger statement was issued that criticizes the regime's "violent and unjust oppression of the civilian population." The West is collectively holding it breath and waiting to see whether or not the opposition has the staying power to really overthrow the regime. If so then we can look for an improvement in the situation, but to what extent remains to be seen.
posted by Jack Cohen at 7:04 PM
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