Sunday, February 28, 2010

Wannsee II

Pres. Ahmedinejad of Iran visited Damascus to meet with his ally Pres. Assad of Syria and his clients Khaled Mashaal, Head of Hamas and Sheikh Nasrullah, Head of Hizbollah. This was what can only be termed a "war council", a meeting of the most virulent anti-Israel and anti-Western forces in the Middle East to plan strategy. Making no pretense about their intentions, Ahmedinejad said he looked forward to a Middle East "without Zionists," in other words they intend to destroy Israel and all the Jews in it, and Assad said that Israel is "capable of aggression at any point." In other words we are prepared to start a war when we decide to.

Remember, Hitler accused the Jews of starting the war against Germany and he was planning to take over the world while accusing the Jews of doing so. Similarly Ahmedinejad and his allies stoop to the same lows, while lambasting American "colonialism", he plans to take over as much of the Middle East as possible. This combination of Muslim theology, Shi'ite expansionism and Persian nationalism is a potent mixture, and with allies in strategically located places, he realizes that he cannot wait forever.

This is their strategy, announce the development of nuclear weapons, that he would fully be prepared to use. Then anticipate an Israeli attack and using this as an excuse, attack Israel. But, since Iran does not control the air, he will use his assets in Gaza and Lebanon (and possibly Syria) to do the actual attacking, each with their tens of thousands of rockets. Note that the original Iranian route of attack against Israel was going to be through Iraq, but that did not work out (the Iran-Iraq war lasted 8 years). Saddam Hussein for all his faults was an impassable barrier against Iranian expansionism.

One astute observer pointed out that this attack can only be done once, so the timing is crucial. That's because Israel, even more than last time, is likely to decimate Hizbollah and Hamas from the air. So while we are currently having a quiet time, this is the quiet before the storm. While Hamas is keeping a ceasefire in Gaza and the PA has quietened down the forces of terrorism, we must be aware of the danger just ahead and we must prepare accordingly. There has been a war against Israel in every decade since the 1930s. The war in this decade is likely to be more destructive and more costly than the recent ones. Since Hizbollah is in the Lebanese Government and PM Saad Hariri has announced that he stands with Hizbollah, there need be no hesitation on Israel's part in attacking Lebanese assets. Let's hope that Israel is prepared for this onslaught and that we come through it intact.

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