American pressure
Is this what Americans want? To have Pres. Barack Obama force Israel to accept a Palestinian dictate. Does he think he can force Israel to accept "peace" on their terms? Since the Palestinians have refused to continue direct talks unless PM Netanyahu accept their precondition for a continued building moratorium on the West Bank, it has been rumored that Obama has sent Netanyahu a letter offering him several concessions, such as improved support for the IDF, for his agreement to continue the moratorium for two more months. Then, the White House denied sending such a letter, but here in Israel it has been discussed in the Cabinet and several Ministers have issued public statements against any further concessions without a response from the Palestinians. A poll taken found that 54% of Israelis are in favor of continued building in Judea and Samaria while 39% are agaisnt.
There are two reasons against giving any further concessions. First, Pres. Obama has refused to accept the commitment that Pres. George W. Bush made in writing to then PM Sharon that the US would accept adjustments to the current ceasefire lines that delineate the West Bank, in order to accommodate changes in Jewish settlements in the territories. In other words, Israel would be able to annex those areas of dense Jewish settlement, including the towns of Ma'ale Adumim, Etzion and Ariel. Since Obama has denied that this letter has any legal validity, why then should a letter from him be considered to have any validity. For example, he is supposed to be offering a commitment that there will be no further extension of the moratorium beyond 2 months. But, how can he make that commitment if after a further 2 months the Palestinians again refuse to negotiate without Israel extending the moratorium. This gets to be ridiculous.
Also, it is clear that the period of two months is correlated with the November elections in the US. Once they are over, will the US then change its negotating position? Now that two of his best advisors, Rahm Emmanuel and David Axelrod, both Jewish, are leaving the White House, are they jumping a sinking ship? Has their advice helped bring Obama to this sorry pass, will we see massive losses to the Democrats in the election?
Abbas does not actually represent the Palestinians, because 40% are in Gaza that is controlled by Hamas, and Abbas decided against having PA elections last January, and so his term expired and he is strictly speaking illegal. But, ignoring that complication, he also demanded that Netanyahu accept the return of "Palestinian refugees" as well as accepting the pre-June 1967 ceasefire line as the border of the Palestinian State. Netanyahu can accept none of these dictates. So, building will continue and the Palestinians by maintaining their maximal positions will have lost again. Abbas has announced his intention of resigning anyway, and he certainly doesn't want to go down in history as the Palestinian leader who ended the conflict and made peace with Israel. If there is another election in the West Bank it is predicted that Hamas will win. Do we want another Hamas-controlled entity right on our borders, a few miles from here?
The final denouement is awaiting the meeting of the Arab Legue to advise Abbas what he should do, continue talks or bolt the talks in the absence of a building moratorium. Mubarak of Egypt used his influence to delay the meeting for several days to give the US representaitve John Mitchell more time to lobby some of the attendees. It probably won't make any difference, the talks seem doomed, not least because the Palestinians are using any excuse to avoid making difficult decisions. They are not yet ready for a historic compromise.
There are two reasons against giving any further concessions. First, Pres. Obama has refused to accept the commitment that Pres. George W. Bush made in writing to then PM Sharon that the US would accept adjustments to the current ceasefire lines that delineate the West Bank, in order to accommodate changes in Jewish settlements in the territories. In other words, Israel would be able to annex those areas of dense Jewish settlement, including the towns of Ma'ale Adumim, Etzion and Ariel. Since Obama has denied that this letter has any legal validity, why then should a letter from him be considered to have any validity. For example, he is supposed to be offering a commitment that there will be no further extension of the moratorium beyond 2 months. But, how can he make that commitment if after a further 2 months the Palestinians again refuse to negotiate without Israel extending the moratorium. This gets to be ridiculous.
Also, it is clear that the period of two months is correlated with the November elections in the US. Once they are over, will the US then change its negotating position? Now that two of his best advisors, Rahm Emmanuel and David Axelrod, both Jewish, are leaving the White House, are they jumping a sinking ship? Has their advice helped bring Obama to this sorry pass, will we see massive losses to the Democrats in the election?
Abbas does not actually represent the Palestinians, because 40% are in Gaza that is controlled by Hamas, and Abbas decided against having PA elections last January, and so his term expired and he is strictly speaking illegal. But, ignoring that complication, he also demanded that Netanyahu accept the return of "Palestinian refugees" as well as accepting the pre-June 1967 ceasefire line as the border of the Palestinian State. Netanyahu can accept none of these dictates. So, building will continue and the Palestinians by maintaining their maximal positions will have lost again. Abbas has announced his intention of resigning anyway, and he certainly doesn't want to go down in history as the Palestinian leader who ended the conflict and made peace with Israel. If there is another election in the West Bank it is predicted that Hamas will win. Do we want another Hamas-controlled entity right on our borders, a few miles from here?
The final denouement is awaiting the meeting of the Arab Legue to advise Abbas what he should do, continue talks or bolt the talks in the absence of a building moratorium. Mubarak of Egypt used his influence to delay the meeting for several days to give the US representaitve John Mitchell more time to lobby some of the attendees. It probably won't make any difference, the talks seem doomed, not least because the Palestinians are using any excuse to avoid making difficult decisions. They are not yet ready for a historic compromise.
posted by Jack Cohen at 9:54 PM
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