Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Ghajar and Hariri

Ghajar is a village on the border between Israel, Syria and Lebanon. It has 500 inhibitants who are of the Alawite minority. Its situation is a microcosm of the complexities of the Middle East.

Originally it was in Syria, but it was captured in 1967 by the IDF and was incorporated as part of the Golan Heights into Israel. After the First Lebanon War in 1982 Syria transferred ownership of Ghajar to Lebanon. This enabled Hizbullah to claim that part of Lebanon was still occupied by Israel. Meahwhile Ghajar had grown and the section of northern Ghajar was ruled by the UN border commission to be beyond the border of the Golan Heights and therefore within Lebanon, even though the UN never formally recognized the transfer from Syria to Lebanon. After the Second Lebanon War of 2006, when the UN Commission finalized the border between Israel and Lebanon, the blue line went right through Ghajar. While all the inhabitants of Ghajar proclaim they are Syrian, nevertheless they have Israeli citizenship, and none of them want to be included in Lebanon. Last time the village was divided Hizbollah occupied the northern portion and there were clashes with the IDF in Ghajar. So after the Second Lebanon War, Israel occupied the whole village. But, under UN pressure, Israel agreed to vacate the northern portion, and since the UN does not recognize Lebanese sovereignty over it, it will be occupied by UNIFIL forces. However, the inhabitants of northern Ghajar do not trust UNIFIL to protect them, and prefer to be under IDF protection. This shows the stupidity of the UN, they are dividing the village and forcing some of the inhabitants inside Lebanese territory, even though they don't recognise Lebanese sovereignty over it.

It is quite possible that Hizbollah will use the situation of Ghajar as a flash point when the the UN Tribunal investigating the assassination of Rafik Hariri finally publishes its conclusions. It is anticipated that they will point the finger directly at Hizbollah. CBC recently obtained and published secret information that it received illegally from the Tribunal that shows how they could come to their conclusion. It was found in interrogation of a top level Lebanese security official that he had discovered a large group of Hizbollah operatives communicating with cell phones immediately before and after the assassination. He was able to establish their numbers and identities. However, after he gave this information to the Tribunal he was murdered, presumably by Hizbollah. Although the PM of Lebanon Saad Hariri, the son of the slain leader, has been very cooperative with Syria lately, it is impossible for him to accept Hizbollah complicity in his father's murder. Once this is publicly acknowledged, Hizbollah will try to deflect attention from itself and will likely try to start a military clash with Israel. But, this will probably not work, since the moderate anti-Hizbollah forces in Lebanon will react to the Tribunal's findings and this will divide Lebanon and might once again lead to a Civil War. The fate of Lebanon hangs in the balance.

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