Chips falling
So after the fabulous democratic Arab uprising of 2011, the chips are falling into place. Only two countries have managed to actually change their dictatorial regimes for a more democratic system in the making, they are Tunisia and Egypt. This alone would be a great accomplishment. Pres. Obama sent Secty of State Hillary Clinton to trounce around Tahrir Square in Cairo to soak up the last few beams of change that were flittering around there. She was hosted of course by the Army Council that is still running Egypt. Yesterday Egyptians voted freely for the first time to change their constitution to allow competitive party elections.
In Libya, Col. Gaddafi's forces were rapidly out-gunning the upstart rebels and taking territory as they raced eastwards towards Benghazi. Then the UN Security Council agreed on a "no-fly zone" while the Libyan forces were busy crushing the revolt and then murdering suspected opponents. The question is whether or not the rebels can hold out in the East, with Egyptian and western support, while international forces suppress the Libyan armed forces. With all the missiles being shot into Libya and the planes flying over, maybe there's a chance. In Bahrain, Sunni forces from Saudi Arabia and the UAE have joined with those of the Bahraini Government to suppress the Shia uprising against the Sunni Khalifa monarchy. In Yemen, while the struggle goes on, it seems that the 32 year reign of Abdullah Saleh is not yet over, with ca. 40 killed in demonstrations and a state of emergency declared.
In Iran, the forces of opposition to the Khomeinist Goverment are still alive, but at present they are unable to act. In Syria, demonstrations against the Government have started but were quickly suppressed, with 20 reported dead. Potentially this would be the most explosive uprising, since the Sunni majority yearn to overthrow the brutal Alawite minority regime of the Assads, and this would no doubt take much fighting. If they manage to do so, then the loss of support for Iran and Hizbollah from Syria would have far-ranging consequences, but that is wishful thinking. Thus it goes in the Arab world, suppression in the name of stability will thwart progress in most places, including the crucial country of Saudi Arabia. Forces for change will be held down once again, until the next outbreak. The US is on opposite sides in different countries, in Libya and Egypt they are supporting the rebels, in Saudi Arabia and Bahrein they are supporting the regimes.
Meanwhile the Palestinians are still being treated worse than second-class citizens, with no human rights, in Lebanon (not in Israel)! They may be given the right to work and earn money there, but that is not certain, while Hizbollah continues to control the Lebanese Government. And in the Palestine areas, in Gaza and the West Bank, Palestinians have demonstrated for unity and reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. But, in Gaza demonstrators were beaten up, even while Hamas leaders were also calling for reconciliation! It will never happen. So they fired 50 mortar shells into Israel's Negev yesterday, maybe they worry that with all that's going on in the Arab world the Palestinians will be forgotten.
No-one, not even Pres., Obama, has suggested that Israel is responsible for this change that is sweeping the Arab world. We in Israel are mere bystanders in this process. Let the chips fall where they may.
In Libya, Col. Gaddafi's forces were rapidly out-gunning the upstart rebels and taking territory as they raced eastwards towards Benghazi. Then the UN Security Council agreed on a "no-fly zone" while the Libyan forces were busy crushing the revolt and then murdering suspected opponents. The question is whether or not the rebels can hold out in the East, with Egyptian and western support, while international forces suppress the Libyan armed forces. With all the missiles being shot into Libya and the planes flying over, maybe there's a chance. In Bahrain, Sunni forces from Saudi Arabia and the UAE have joined with those of the Bahraini Government to suppress the Shia uprising against the Sunni Khalifa monarchy. In Yemen, while the struggle goes on, it seems that the 32 year reign of Abdullah Saleh is not yet over, with ca. 40 killed in demonstrations and a state of emergency declared.
In Iran, the forces of opposition to the Khomeinist Goverment are still alive, but at present they are unable to act. In Syria, demonstrations against the Government have started but were quickly suppressed, with 20 reported dead. Potentially this would be the most explosive uprising, since the Sunni majority yearn to overthrow the brutal Alawite minority regime of the Assads, and this would no doubt take much fighting. If they manage to do so, then the loss of support for Iran and Hizbollah from Syria would have far-ranging consequences, but that is wishful thinking. Thus it goes in the Arab world, suppression in the name of stability will thwart progress in most places, including the crucial country of Saudi Arabia. Forces for change will be held down once again, until the next outbreak. The US is on opposite sides in different countries, in Libya and Egypt they are supporting the rebels, in Saudi Arabia and Bahrein they are supporting the regimes.
Meanwhile the Palestinians are still being treated worse than second-class citizens, with no human rights, in Lebanon (not in Israel)! They may be given the right to work and earn money there, but that is not certain, while Hizbollah continues to control the Lebanese Government. And in the Palestine areas, in Gaza and the West Bank, Palestinians have demonstrated for unity and reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. But, in Gaza demonstrators were beaten up, even while Hamas leaders were also calling for reconciliation! It will never happen. So they fired 50 mortar shells into Israel's Negev yesterday, maybe they worry that with all that's going on in the Arab world the Palestinians will be forgotten.
No-one, not even Pres., Obama, has suggested that Israel is responsible for this change that is sweeping the Arab world. We in Israel are mere bystanders in this process. Let the chips fall where they may.
posted by Jack Cohen at 9:47 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home