Tsunami
It is of course enormously difficult to predict what will happen in the Arab world once the current wave of uprisings have ebbed. The situation is more analagous to a tsunami, that wrecks the cloak of stability that has been covering up the corruption, rigidity and injustice that has been characteristic of the Arab world. Seen in that context the Israel-Palestine conflict is but a minor pinprick on the side of an enormous elephant.
Tunisia is on its way to establishing a Francophile democracy, in which the Army is subordinate to the civil authorities. They have a new interim Government and are planning a Constitutional Convention. It seems that Egypt is aspiring towards a more egalitarian society, in which a responsible and representative government will be dedicated to primarily economic concerns, providing jobs for the huge number of young people, exploiting its oil and gas deposits for the benefit of the country and using the Suez Canal for financial returns. In order to foster tourism, that was the second largest earner of foreign income, Egypt needs stability and peace. Unless the Muslim Brotherhood makes a serious attempt at taking power, either by force or through the ballot box, Egypt should become in time a moderate democracy. Or is this wishful thinking? The alternative is Muslim extremism and potentially war with Israel, not something the majority of Egyptians currently seek. Although we in Israel fear the outcome of the unrestrained Egyptian masses, given the hostility towards Israel of some parts of the population, nevertheless, the aims of the popular uprising and the lack of reference to Israel, give us hope that the last thing that the Egyptians want is another autocratic system and a focus on war.
Jordan, Israel's second peace partner, has not had a lot of activity during this period, a few small demonstrations. Superficially it would seem that Jordan is a most attractive target for a popular uprising. Approximately 70% of Jordan's population is Palestinian that has limited allegiance to the Hashemite King Abdullah II, who depends largely on his Beduin army. But, seeing the civil war that is underway in Libya may give the opposition in Jordan pause. Are they really prepared to risk stability and reasonable economic development for a civil war? In the long run I think the answer is "yes." The Beduin are not enamored of the westernized Hashemite regime, and Jordan could become the target of the Palestinian national movement, since Israel is too hard a nut for them to crack. They don't want in principle to give up their claim on the "West Bank", but Jordan would be an ideal case where a popular Palestinian-based uprising could work. Is this another case of wishful thinking? But, if Hashemite Jordan went under to a Palestinian based movement, that would change the whole complexion of the Middle East situation.
In Libya a civil war will continue to rage until Qaddafi is swept from power and/or assassinated. Such a victorious outcome would galvanize the opposition to Pres. Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, where the result of such a conflict is impossible to predict. It might also activate the slumbering masses in Syria, who are too scared to revolt under the yoke of the ruthless Alawite Assad regime. But, in Iran, the Islamist regime will cling to power with violent suppression, since the Iranian Revolutionary Guard now effectively own Iran and they will not readily give up their control.
In Bahrain, the outcome could be very influential for the Persian Gulf region. A mainly Shia population is poised against the Sunni Khalifah monarchy. No doubt Iran is supporting the Shia and the US is supporting its ally the Sheikh. But, Bahrain is a relatively minor player. What matters most is what happens in Saudi Arabia. With 20% of the world's oil reserves and a paternalistic antiquated royal system, Saudi Arabia cannot last long in its present form in the modern world. There will be a revolution of some kind there in due course, and how that plays out will affect us all.
Tunisia is on its way to establishing a Francophile democracy, in which the Army is subordinate to the civil authorities. They have a new interim Government and are planning a Constitutional Convention. It seems that Egypt is aspiring towards a more egalitarian society, in which a responsible and representative government will be dedicated to primarily economic concerns, providing jobs for the huge number of young people, exploiting its oil and gas deposits for the benefit of the country and using the Suez Canal for financial returns. In order to foster tourism, that was the second largest earner of foreign income, Egypt needs stability and peace. Unless the Muslim Brotherhood makes a serious attempt at taking power, either by force or through the ballot box, Egypt should become in time a moderate democracy. Or is this wishful thinking? The alternative is Muslim extremism and potentially war with Israel, not something the majority of Egyptians currently seek. Although we in Israel fear the outcome of the unrestrained Egyptian masses, given the hostility towards Israel of some parts of the population, nevertheless, the aims of the popular uprising and the lack of reference to Israel, give us hope that the last thing that the Egyptians want is another autocratic system and a focus on war.
Jordan, Israel's second peace partner, has not had a lot of activity during this period, a few small demonstrations. Superficially it would seem that Jordan is a most attractive target for a popular uprising. Approximately 70% of Jordan's population is Palestinian that has limited allegiance to the Hashemite King Abdullah II, who depends largely on his Beduin army. But, seeing the civil war that is underway in Libya may give the opposition in Jordan pause. Are they really prepared to risk stability and reasonable economic development for a civil war? In the long run I think the answer is "yes." The Beduin are not enamored of the westernized Hashemite regime, and Jordan could become the target of the Palestinian national movement, since Israel is too hard a nut for them to crack. They don't want in principle to give up their claim on the "West Bank", but Jordan would be an ideal case where a popular Palestinian-based uprising could work. Is this another case of wishful thinking? But, if Hashemite Jordan went under to a Palestinian based movement, that would change the whole complexion of the Middle East situation.
In Libya a civil war will continue to rage until Qaddafi is swept from power and/or assassinated. Such a victorious outcome would galvanize the opposition to Pres. Abdullah Saleh in Yemen, where the result of such a conflict is impossible to predict. It might also activate the slumbering masses in Syria, who are too scared to revolt under the yoke of the ruthless Alawite Assad regime. But, in Iran, the Islamist regime will cling to power with violent suppression, since the Iranian Revolutionary Guard now effectively own Iran and they will not readily give up their control.
In Bahrain, the outcome could be very influential for the Persian Gulf region. A mainly Shia population is poised against the Sunni Khalifah monarchy. No doubt Iran is supporting the Shia and the US is supporting its ally the Sheikh. But, Bahrain is a relatively minor player. What matters most is what happens in Saudi Arabia. With 20% of the world's oil reserves and a paternalistic antiquated royal system, Saudi Arabia cannot last long in its present form in the modern world. There will be a revolution of some kind there in due course, and how that plays out will affect us all.
posted by Jack Cohen at 9:13 PM
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