Arab spring?
The name "Arab spring" has been coined to describe the series of uprisings that are occuring throughout the Arab world. But, it is a misnomer, since it implies a positive new burst of vitality and a desire for freedom and democracy. Here are some reasons why we should remain sceptical until the evidence is in:
1. The slogans shouted by the crowds in Egypt and Syria often don't reflect a desire for peace and democracy. In Egypt one popular cry is to annul the peace treaty with Israel. This reflects a general anti-Americanism that implies that Pres. Mubarak, now in prison hospital, gave away advantages to Israel because he was a puppet of the Americans. In Syria the crowd chants "Assad coward, you set your army on us and not Israel," reflecting the fact that the Israel-Syrian border has been quiet for 40 years (since the 1973 Yom Kippur war), while both Assads, father and son, preferred to direct their anti-Israel activities thru Lebanon. Maybe the crowds would change these policies if they took power.
2. The treatment meted out to Lara Logan, a CBS correspondent, who was mass raped and nearly killed in Tahrir Square, by a mob of supposed pro-democracy demonstrators. I have always wondered why blonde western women find it acceptable as reporteres to delve into crowds of Middle Eastern men, known for their violent behavior. First, there were no other women present, they usually demonstrate separately. Second the crowds are anti-American, and so any American is going to be a target, and third they began to shout that she was a "Jew and Israeli," which is enough to get her killed, even though not true. Her survival after 30 mins was amazing, she was terribly beaten and sexually assaulted, but no bones were broken and she survived, being saved by some burka-clad women and Egyptian soldiers. She revealed her story in a "60-Minutes" interview ( see:
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7364550n&tag=related;photovideo ).
3. Attacks on Coptic Christians in Egypt have spiraled out of control. Salafist Muslim extremists are carrying out a campaign of deadly attacks on Coptic Churches that yesterday killed 12 and destroyed a major Church. Thousands of Copts demonstrated against these attacks, but the Government seems unable to stop the violence. There are millions of Coptic Christians in Egypt (10% of the population), if the interim military Government loses control terrible things could happen there.
4. The Sunni-Shia rift looms large as a factor in some of the uprisings. For example, in Syria the bulk of the population is Sunni, while the Army and secret service are dominated by the Alawite minority group (12%) that identifies as Shia. In Bahrain the opposite is true, the power structure of the Sheik of Bahrain of the Khalifa clan is Sunni while the majority of the populace is Shia. With Saudi and Gulf armed forces helping the Bahrainis, the Shia uprising has been effectively stifled in Bahrain. But, this is where the Sunni-Shai rift is located, between Saudi Arabia and Iran and thru Syria.
So let's not call it the "Arab spring" too soon, it may turn out to be a lot less of a flowering than this name implies
1. The slogans shouted by the crowds in Egypt and Syria often don't reflect a desire for peace and democracy. In Egypt one popular cry is to annul the peace treaty with Israel. This reflects a general anti-Americanism that implies that Pres. Mubarak, now in prison hospital, gave away advantages to Israel because he was a puppet of the Americans. In Syria the crowd chants "Assad coward, you set your army on us and not Israel," reflecting the fact that the Israel-Syrian border has been quiet for 40 years (since the 1973 Yom Kippur war), while both Assads, father and son, preferred to direct their anti-Israel activities thru Lebanon. Maybe the crowds would change these policies if they took power.
2. The treatment meted out to Lara Logan, a CBS correspondent, who was mass raped and nearly killed in Tahrir Square, by a mob of supposed pro-democracy demonstrators. I have always wondered why blonde western women find it acceptable as reporteres to delve into crowds of Middle Eastern men, known for their violent behavior. First, there were no other women present, they usually demonstrate separately. Second the crowds are anti-American, and so any American is going to be a target, and third they began to shout that she was a "Jew and Israeli," which is enough to get her killed, even though not true. Her survival after 30 mins was amazing, she was terribly beaten and sexually assaulted, but no bones were broken and she survived, being saved by some burka-clad women and Egyptian soldiers. She revealed her story in a "60-Minutes" interview ( see:
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7364550n&tag=related;photovideo ).
3. Attacks on Coptic Christians in Egypt have spiraled out of control. Salafist Muslim extremists are carrying out a campaign of deadly attacks on Coptic Churches that yesterday killed 12 and destroyed a major Church. Thousands of Copts demonstrated against these attacks, but the Government seems unable to stop the violence. There are millions of Coptic Christians in Egypt (10% of the population), if the interim military Government loses control terrible things could happen there.
4. The Sunni-Shia rift looms large as a factor in some of the uprisings. For example, in Syria the bulk of the population is Sunni, while the Army and secret service are dominated by the Alawite minority group (12%) that identifies as Shia. In Bahrain the opposite is true, the power structure of the Sheik of Bahrain of the Khalifa clan is Sunni while the majority of the populace is Shia. With Saudi and Gulf armed forces helping the Bahrainis, the Shia uprising has been effectively stifled in Bahrain. But, this is where the Sunni-Shai rift is located, between Saudi Arabia and Iran and thru Syria.
So let's not call it the "Arab spring" too soon, it may turn out to be a lot less of a flowering than this name implies
posted by Jack Cohen at 7:20 AM
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