Sunday, May 29, 2011

No imposed solution!

During the past week of many speeches, many points have been made about the Israel-Palestine conflict. It seems each commentator focuses on one point that gives him an opportunity for didactic analysis. If I were to choose one point that noone else seems to have selected as being the most significant, I would say it is the statement by Pres. Obama that there will be no imposed solution. He said this in his speech at AIPAC and also in his press conference with PM Cameron in London.

Why is this so important? Because, whatever the other issues, if Obama is telling the truth, then Israel can chart its own course, can decide on its own red lines, and can be sure that no external solution will be imposed on it. This minimizes the concern over settlements, borders, refugees and Jerusalem. Of course, we now have to contend with the PA going to the UN General Assembly and asking for unilateral recognition of a Palestine State. But, they cannot achieve this because they would need Security Council approval and Pres. Obama has reaffirmed that the US will not go along with such a unilateral action and with his allies will continue to support bilateral negotiations between Israel and the PA. However, if the PA government includes Hamas as a recognized terrorist organization, Pres. Obama and others can also understand why Israel would not negotiate with them. So Israel is left in a position that there are currently no actual negotiations, there are not likely to be bilateral negotiations any time soon and so all that Netanyahu said about Israel being "generous" to the Palestinians and that some settlements will be "outside" the borders of Israel, is all theoretical.

When Obama and others state, as at the G8 Summit just concluded, that now that there is unrest in the Arab world, now is an "opportunity" to try for a negotiated settlement, I sometimes wonder if we are living in the same world. How can one negotiate with the Palestinians, whether or not they have a "State", when we don't know what's going to happen to Egypt and Syria. PM Netanyahu would do well to include in his next speech that Israel will not make any significant decisions until the outcome of the Arab uprisings is known and that could take several years. If there will be no imposed solution, then we can afford to wait until the dust has settled, and when we know where we are with the union of Fatah and Hamas (will it last?), with Egypt (will the Moslem Brotherhood take over?), and with Syria (how many demonstrators will Assad kill before the West takes action?). People say "time is not on our side," but I say time has to be. It has taken 63 years for the Palestinians to return to the UN "Partition Plan" of 1948. At the time, Israel accepted it, but the Arabs rejected it. If we wait long enough they will go thru the stages of coming to terms with Israel's existence, as long as we stay strong and vibrant. Let them come to terms with us as a "Jewish, democratic State," and then we can have real discussions.

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