Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Palestinian statehood?

Pres. Abbas of the PA is a perfect example for the Palestinians. He is illegal, his term as President actually expired in January last year, he has no legal position, but nevertheless the Palestinians follow him, because actually he is the head of the PLO and according to the PLO's charter they are the sole representative of the Palestinian people (neither the PA nor Hamas). In his speech last Friday and since he has said that he doesn't support the use of violence against Israel (i.e. not terrorism) but if violence occurs it will be due to Israel's "occupation," which is the excuse for everything, the Palestinians are never guilty of anything. The fact is that no Muslim leader, least of all a Palestinian leader, can compromise, least of all on territory. What was Muslim territory must remain so forever (they want Spain back) and so he cannot actually compromise on territory. That is why he is going to the UN, because negotiations will require compromises from both sides and he simply cannot do it. He cannot say "I recognise Israel as the State of the Jewish people" because that would in effect be ceding Muslim territory to the Jews, something that is inconceivable. So he is avoiding negotiations, first by putting pre-conditions that prevent them occuring and then outflanking them by going to the UN for recognition.

But the UN cannot establish a state, any state! I saw a news report that said that the Palestinian application to the UN is copied from Israel's application in 1948. But, nothing could be further from the truth! Israel accepted the UN Partition Plan of 1948 and the Arabs rejected it (there was no Palestinian people then!). Then Ben Gurion declared Israeli Statehood and several major countries (US, Russia, France) recognized its existence, and only then did Israel go to the UN for recognition. Before a State can be recognized by the UN it must have control over its own territory, it must have the ability to defend that territory and it must be able to exist both organizationally (i.e. with an organized Government) and economy. Palestine has none of these things! Currently it has no organized Government, its territory is divided between two hostile parties (West Bank and Gaza), it has no economic means of survival (without enormous donations) and no major countries recognize it. Its all a fraud, popular with a lot of people, but actually a PR trick.

I saw an interview in which someone warned Israel and the international community not to respond harshly to the Palestinian gambit. So what are they supposed to do, nothing? Abbas directly flouts Pres. Obama's wishes, he takes unilateral action, that is intended to outflank Israel, and then we shouldn't do anything? Abbas is trying to soften the impact of this total turnaround by saying that after the UN recognition of their State, negotiations for peace can start again. But, why would anyone trust him, when he has thrown negotiations out of the window? What can be expected as a reaction. The two expected consequences are that many donors to the PA will withdraw their support for an illegitmate Palestinian State, including the US, where resolutions are ready to be passed in Congress cutting of all aid. Also, to be expected is that Israel will take its own unilateral action, annexing those areas that it has said that it wants to occupy in land swaps where large majorities of Jews live (including Ariel, Ma'ale Adumim, Etzion, the Jordan Valley, etc.) containing ca. 200,000 Jews. It would be stupid and dangerous for Israel not to take over these areas. How things will then work out is unclear, but you can be sure that Abbas will say, "all we did was apply to the UN for Statehood, and look what they've done, it's not fair!"


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