Embarrassing

The situation of PM Sharon is, to put it frankly, embarrassing. His
inaugural presentation to the Knesset for the winter session on Monday was
followed by a vote, that he lost 53 to 44. The Labor Party, under the
leadership of Shimon Peres, has decided to support the Disengagement Plan,
but not the Government. So although the main proposal in Sharon's speech
was the Plan, because it was a general statement and not a specific bill,
Labor voted against it. Peres issued a statement that they will vote for
the actual Disengagement bill only when it is presented and if they agree
with all of it.
The Likud was split over the speech, and 12 Likud MKs abstained from the
vote In retaliation the next day Sharon invited all Likud MKs who supported
him to a meeting, and excluded the rebels. Then he issued a warning to them
that in effect he would expel them from the Likud. How he will manage to do
this when the Likud Central Committee has twice voted against his
Disengagement Plan by an overwhelming majority is unclear.
Likud is not the only party that is split. The National Religious Party
(NRP) that is a member of the coalition, was split, with 4 abstaining and 2
voting for the speech. So Sharon is talking once again of re-constituting
his Coalition, either with other religious parties (Shas, Torah Judaism) or
Labor. But, Labor is split between those who want to join a National Unity
Government (led by Peres) and the majority who are against. So for the
moment, Sharon is leading a minority government with no clear option in
sight, except that he expects a majority to vote for the Disengagement Plan
bill that he will introduce in two weeks time, on Oct. 25, followed a week
later by the necessary appropriations bill to implement it.
In effect Sharon is reduced to a situation where any piece of legislation,
except perhaps the Disengagement Plan itself, could be rejected by the
Knesset and the Government could fall. This could lead to early elections,
although it seems that most of the politicians are wary of this, fearing
that they too may be rejected.
An alternative to the vote in the Knesset has been the proposal to have a
national referendum on the Disengagement Plan, that would clarify the
situation once and for all. But, Sharon and a majority of the Cabinet
oppose a referendum, fearing two things, first that the Government's
decision-making ability will be permanently compromised, and second that if
the results of the referendum were unclear or challenged, for whatever
reason, this might lead to chaos. So the Disengagement Plan is the likely
route in the near future.
In the British Parliament, both PM Blair and FM Jack Straw have announced
their support for Sharon in carrying out his "courageous" plan, and the Bush
Administration has given their support. This is only one of the reasons why
Sharon is pursuing this initiative, hoping that it will end or at least
ameliorate Israel's increasing diplomatic isolation. One of the first
fruits of this is that there has been very limited criticism of the IDF's
incursions into northern Gaza to clear out the terrorist infrastructure that
is involved in shooting rockets into Israel. Great damage has been done to
Jabalya, Beit Hanun and Beit Lahiya, and many Hamas and other gunmen have
been killed.
Another notable success of Israeli forces was the capture yesterday of the
leader of the Hamas cell in Hebron, Imad Kawasmeh. He is considered
responsible for the double suicide bombing that occurred in Beersheva
several weeks ago in which 16 Israelis were killed, as well as many other
attacks. He was surrounded in a complex of supposedly empty houses owned
by his clan, and after 7 hours gave himself up without firing a shot. He
was captured wearing just his underwear to avoid the possibility that he had
a suicide belt, and was ignominiously led away blindfolded by IDF soldiers.
Another embarrassing defeat for Hamas. This is especially significant since
with the Security Fence in Samaria reducing the effective access of suicide
bombers, and with a greater success rate against the current wave of female
suicide bombers (12 have been captured in the past month), Hebron, where
there is no Security Fence yet, had become the chief center for terrorist
activity. Gradually Israel is defeating and rolling back the terrorist
threat. If only we could get our own house in order and implement the
Disengagement Plan and avoid splitting the country that would be very nice.