The Great Debate

A historic debate is occurring in the Knesset that will determine the future
of the State of Israel and its people for many years to come. It signals a
turning point in the struggle between the Palestinians and Israelis, and a
victory for Israel over the intifada.
The debate will allow each and every one of the 120 members of the Knesset
to express their views over the next two days on the issue of Disengagement
from Gaza and northern Samaria (Shomron). The side issues of a referendum
and party politics are surmounted by this debate. In effect PM Sharon is
putting his personal credibility on the line in order to move the situation
off dead center and resolve the stalemate. He is probably the only leader,
being a right wing father of the settlements, who can persuade the majority
of Israelis to take this route. At present it is estimated that two thirds
of the Israeli public supports the disengagement from Gaza, and that a
majority of the Knesset will vote for it after the debate.
The last minute decision of the religious leader of the Shas Party, Rabbi
Ovadiah Yosef, to oppose the vote on halachic grounds, has increased the
opposition to the Disengagement. But, this is not a big surprise since Shas
is an orthodox (Sephardic) party that was ousted from the Government by
Sharon in favor of their secular enemy Shinui. With the support of Shinui,
Labor, several smaller left-wing parties and about half of Likud, Sharon is
expected to garner a majority. The exact size will be important, because
for as crucial a policy change as this a large majority is really called
for, although it is unlikely that he will get a large enough majority to
satisfy his opponents.
The compensation plan has been passed by the Cabinet, and once the current
vote is taken, the Disengagement will be underway. The schedule is that all
settlements will be evacuated by next September, 2005. Most of the 8,000
settlers in Gaza will not go readily, they will no doubt resist, but let's
hope there will not be violence.
This situation puts the left and some of the right in an uneasy alliance,
because the left want this to be the first step in a total withdrawal from
"all" territories (not even called for in UN Resolution 242), while the
right sees this as a price they are prepared to pay for an end to the
process of piecemeal withdrawals. After this they will not withdraw from
any other locations, short of a negotiated settlement, particularly not from
the densely Jewish populated areas of the West Bank.
The Disengagement Plan if passed will be a challenge to the so-called
"liberal" opponents of Israel in the EU and around the world. Surely even
they can see that Sharon is doing the "right" thing, and their extreme
opposition to Israel should be undercut by the end of this "occupation" to
which they attribute all evil. An editorial in the Times of London today
supporting Sharon's move is an indicator of the turnaround that many
"responsible" critics of Israeli policy will hopefully be forced to make.
The Palestinians will also be trying to show by using violence that they are
"forcing" the IDF out of Gaza. It is likely that the IDF will not re-deploy
from Gaza until after the settlements are evacuated. The IDF will probably
continue to carry out operations like Days of Repentance and killing
terrorist leaders, as they killed Adnan Ghoul the "father of the Kassam
rockets" a few days ago with a rocket attack. The more the power structure
of the terrorist organizations is damaged the better will be the situation
after the withdrawal. But, the IDF will be ready to go back in if
necessary.
At present it has not been decided what to do with the settlements, either
to leave them intact or to destroy them. To the terrorists and much of the
Palestinian population they are hated symbols of Israeli "occupation" and
they will no doubt want to destroy them, as they did with the Israeli
habitations in Sinai when Israel withdrew from there. The Government wants
to avoid scenes of terrorists standing on destroyed Israeli buildings and
celebrating "victory." However, destroying them before leaving also sends a
bad message. Israel hopes to hand them over to a third party, either the
UN, EU or Egypt, but this is not decided yet.
Let us not forget that this Disengagement is basically motivated because the
Palestinians cannot tolerate a small minority of Jews, 8,000 in 1.5 million,
living amongst them, such is their racism and intolerance. In effect Israel
will be taking them out of harm's way.
This is the first time that Israel will be cutting its losses and doing what
is in its own interests without consideration for the Palestinians. How
they actually respond and how they handle themselves within Gaza will be a
test for their pretensions to be considered a sovereign people.