Turning point

Are we at the crucial turning point that must come in Palestinian-Israel
relations for there to be not only a new relationship, but an eventual
mutual compromise agreement?
The straws in the wind are as follows: (a) the deliberate challenge to
Abbas' control by the major attack by the three terrorist groups on the
Karni crossing and the continued rocketing of Sderot and mortaring of the
Gaza settlements; (b) the first meeting of the new cabinet and security
committee of Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah two days ago that made decisions
declaring that violence must cease against Israel and all attacks must stop,
including suicide terrorist attacks and rocket/mortar attacks from Gaza; (c)
this decision was taken against the backdrop of the Israel Govt.'s decision
to cut off all contact with the PA due to the ongoing attacks; (d) a meeting
between Abbas and the so-called "Geneva Accords" supporters, particularly
the left-wing Yahad (former Meretz) Party leader Yossi Beilin, who while
opposing Sharon's decision to cut off ties, nevertheless warned Abbas that
terrorist attacks against Israel must be dealt with first before any
negotiations can proceed, and (e) a not too subtle warning that unless some
action is taken very soon, the IDF will launch a major "harsh" invasion of
northern Gaza and will further destroy areas of Beit Hanun to stop the
shellings. This message may have also been conveyed thru the US, that
supports the contention that terrorism must stop first, as the necessary
prerequisite before any progress can be made in the Road Map.
Note that while the official policy of the Govt. is to "disengage" from
Gaza, demonstrators in Sderot were waving placards calling for the IDF to
invade Gaza and take over large portions of the territory in order to
effectively stop the rocket attacks. Life cannot go on with such daily,
lethal, random attacks.
Two other related aspects. In order to protect their "bright eyed boy," the
Europeans are anxious for it to be seen that Abbas is the "man of peace," so
German Chancellor Schroeder stated today that Abbas has indeed acted against
terrorists. A bit premature actually, since he has not acted yet, but has
expressed an intention to act, so far only words. Today Abbas is in Gaza
telling Hamas and the others what his intentions are regarding a ceasefire.
But they have already in advance rejected any consideration of halting
attacks, their spokesman issued a statement saying that they adhere to
continuing the "armed struggle" until the end of the "Israeli occupation."
In order to accomplish his aims, Abbas has first instigated an investigation
into how a truck-bomb was able to pass through several armed PA checkpoints
in order to arrive at the Karni crossing. He has also issued orders to
station PA forces (there are between 30-50,000 security forces of various
kinds under his control) in the new no-man's land that Israel has created in
northern and southern Gaza in order to stop the attacks, both by rockets and
tunnels. Whether this deployment will actually be carried out, whether or
not it will be effective and whether or not the attacks will stop is the
acid test. If not, an IDF force is poised to enter Gaza. Abbas has at
least several days and at most a month to carry this out. If he can't
persuade the terrorist organizations with sweet reason, that has never
worked before and is not likely to work now, does he have the kind of
"balls" to actually act against them.
If not then we can conclude that nothing significantly has changed by his
assumption of leadership of the PA. If he does, then we may hope that
eventually there will be progress towards an agreement, and I promise you
this: that when peace dawns I will stop writing these messages, so you
should hope that he succeeds.