The Mantle

Mahmoud Abbas was raised on the shoulders of gun-toting al Aksa Martyr's
Brigades terrorists in Jenin the other day and he said that he will never
raise a gun against them. He was given unconditional support by Zacharias
Zubeidi, their notorious leader. Yesterday at an election rally in Gaza he
called Israel "the Zionist enemy," adopting the terminology of Hamas. He
has also taken to wearing a keffiyah, and in his campaign posters he is
shown next to Yasser Arafat, his long-term boss and mentor. Is this the man
to "reform" the PA and bring us peace?
In contrast, he was also quoted as saying that shooting rockets into Israel
should stop because it gives the IDF an excuse to come into Gaza and kill
Palestinians (7 on Tuesday) and cause destruction. He was strongly
criticized for this statement by the same terrorists who hoisted him aloft
so recently.
Of course, many people, including many Israelis, are prepared to give him
the benefit of the doubt. He is after all running for election as President
of the PA, and he must say what the Palestinian "masses" and the armed
gunmen want to hear.
So which way will he go? He is on the horns of a dilemma, if
he appears too conciliatory towards Israel he is called a US puppet, but if
he states his maximal demands (right of return, Jerusalem, etc.) he is
called an extremist by many Israelis, including some in the Israeli
Government.
In fact it is a mistake to believe that Abbas is a "man of peace," that he
is prepared to compromise with Israel and that his victory in this election
will usher in a renewed peace process. Abbas is busy working on his "image"
as the successor, wearing the mantle of Arafat, so we will likely have more
of the same, only a bit watered down. I hope I am proved wrong, but all
indications are that he is sincere in his statements, i.e. he will not
engage the terrorists, at most he will try to persuade them to provide a
temporary ceasefire (hudna) so that he can establish his credentials with
the US. He will not give up any of the Palestinian hard-line positions
(right of return, Jerusalem, etc.) that the Palestinians might have gotten
from PM Barak before the intifada, but will never get from PM Sharon after
it (unless he allows Peres to take over).
In Israel, the Govt. coalition crisis continues. Labor is poised to join
the coalition, with Peres named Vice-PM, a position that does not really
exist, since Ehud Olmert is Deputy PM, and this is a legal position that
cannot be duplicated. It is understood that if something should happen to
Sharon only Olmert who is from Likud can succeed him. But, the coalition
cannot be finalized because the United Torah Judaism party cannot make up
its mind what to do. The Rabbis are still consulting the Torah and their
pipicks. Shas is out for the moment and so is Shinui. So how Sharon will
cobble together a working coalition is anybody's guess. If he can't then
there will have to be new elections.
In an interview with the J'sam Post last week Olmert made a startling
statement for a Likud Deputy PM. He said that once the unilateral Israeli
Disengagement from Gaza and northern Samaria takes place, Israel may have to
consider other withdrawals from the West Bank. This is contrary to
Government policy and resulted in a sharp reprimand from PM Sharon. But, in
the past Sharon has used Olmert to test various "trial balloons," and we are
left speculating whether or not Sharon is really against this or he is once
again preparing the ground well in advance.
Meanwhile the opposition to the Disengagement from Gaza is getting
organized. They have tents outside the PM's office, and today in J'sam I
saw that the security around the area has been considerably beefed up. The
firstshot was fired by a soldier evacuating settlers from an outpost (no-one
washurt) and the first soldier disobeyed an order and (in civilian clothes)
led a group of protesters against the removal. Where all this will lead is
anyone's guess, but we are mostly hoping for a peaceful disengagement
process and then a stop to all withdrawals until we have a serious and
trustworthy peace partner. Dream on...