National Unity Government

The vote last Thursday by the Likud Central Committee opened the way for PM
Sharon in his bid to form a National Unity Government with the Labor Party,
as well as with two religious parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism. He
won the vote by two thirds to one, a surprisingly strong turnaround from
previous defeats.
Now the Labor Party, that is also split between those who want to form a
coalition with Likud and those who do not, has to decide. It is very likely
that Labor leader Peres will get his way, since few are prepared to risk new
elections when they can obtain Ministries and influence now. So it is
highly likely that within two weeks a new NUG will be in office, and
prepared to carry out the unilateral Disengagement Plan for Gaza and
northern Samaria.
However, now that Arafat is gone, and a new PA Government is being elected,
there is a move by Sharon to reduce the unilateral nature of this policy in
preference for coordination with the new PA leadership. Yielding to popular
pressure Marwan Barghouti has flip-flopped again and is no longer going to
run as a candidate for the PA Presidency. This leaves the way clear for a
large majority for Mahmoud Abbas, thus strengthening his position. However,
whether or not he will be strong enough to act against the terrorist groups
who have refused to stop their attacks against Israel or he can engineer a
ceasefire remains to be seen. Every day there are still rockets and mortars
fired at Jewish settlements in Gaza and into Israeli territory in the Negev.
Also, suicide bombings are being thwarted all the time, now the rate of
interception is about 90%. So the extent of Israeli coordination with the
PA of the withdrawal from Gaza will depend initially on to what extent Abbas
and his Government can actually stop the attacks and bring about a
ceasefire. With a popular Government on each side and strong support from
Egypt, Jordan, the US and the EU, good things could happen.
However, there are some flies in the ointment. In their recent
fence-mending tour through Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, Abbas and the PA
leadership made some disturbing statements, such as admitting that their
aims are the same as those of Syria and the Palestinian terrorist groups
headquartered in Damascus, and committing themselves to the full "right of
return" for the half million or so Palestinian residents in Lebanon and
Syria (the so-called "refugees"). Since this is an unacceptable condition
for Israel, it is clear that the future negotiations, if they come to pass,
will be difficult indeed.
One interesting idea that has been floated is that in exchange for areas of
the West Bank that Israel intends to retain as part of any final drawing of
borders, Israel could transfer sovereignty over parts of Israel that contain
a majority of Arabs that are adjacent to the West Bank. This includes the
so-called triangle region between Umm-al Fahm and Baqa-al Gharbiya,
containing several hundred thousand Arabs. This would satisfy the PA's need
for land and contiguity as well as Israel's desire to maintain a Jewish
majority. However, this idea might flounder because the Israeli Arabs who
live there might not want to give up their Israeli citizenship, and also
because some Israelis will see it as a bad precedent to give up sovereign
Israeli territory to the PA. However, such ideas may come to the fore if
the PA really adopts a ceasefire and genuine negotiations follow.