One Rabbi

One old Rabbi, Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef, spiritual leader of the Shas movement,
holds the future of the State of Israel in his hands. How ironic! Sharon
is now down to 40 members of the Likud Party in the Knesset, not all of them
loyal to him, to constitute his minority Government. Actually its not
really a Government at all, any vote against him and he's out and there will
have to be new elections.
The Labor Party is in the process of trying to decide whether or not to join
him in a National Unity coalition. But, he also needs some of the religious
parties, including Shas and United Torah Judaism, to make a majority and to
keep some of the right wing members of Likud from bolting also, or blocking
the deal with Labor. But, Labor only wants to join him in order to bring
about the Disengagement from Gaza.
Shas so far, under the order of Rabbi Yosef, is against the Disengagement
Plan, seeing it as giving up sacred Jewish Land, and a unilateral concession
to the Palestinian terrorists at that. Unless Rabbi Yosef can be persuaded
(by a suitable pay-off?) to compromise and allow Shas to vote for
Disengagement, then Labor will not join the coalition and the Government
will be defeated and will die prematurely.
However, even Labor is split, the Peres faction supporting the coalition,
and the socially conscious left-wing faction being prepared to vote against
the 2005 budget, thus scuppering the Government. They are against the budget
of Finance Minister Netanyahu because he has cut social programs as much as
other parts of the Government.
So the whole nasty political business hangs on the decision of this one old
Rabbi. I wish it were not so. But, that is the politics of coalition
building in our screwed up system, where parties matter more than
constituents.
In other respects things seem to be going well. The relationship with Egypt
seems to be warming up. Describing it as a gesture to Sharon, Pres. Mubarak
released the Israeli Druse businessman, Azam Azam, who had spent 8 years in
Egyptian jails on trumped up charges of spying. In exchange Mubarak got
back 6 Egyptian students who had entered Israel illegally with the intention
of killing Israeli soldiers. They came armed with an old rifle and some
knives, obviously underestimating the capability of the IDF.
Although Syria seems to want desperately to talk to Israel, Israel and the
US are playing it very cool, preferring to deal first with the Palestinians,
the basic issue, rather than complicate the whole situation with parallel
talks. So talks with Syria are not likely to start any time soon.
The Palestinians seem to be having a smooth transition. Fatah has united
behind Abbas as their candidate for President of the PA, and even the al
Aksa Brigades young guard are siding with him against Marwan Barghouti. It
looks as If Marwan spoiled his chances by waiting too long then changing his
decision twice. It made him look indecisive and unreliable and he may even
be expelled from Fatah. Even if Hamas supports him it now looks as if he
has little chance of winning. While they are in Syria, Abbas and his
cronies are seeking to persuade Hamas leaders there to declare a ceasefire
with Israel.
While seeking the route of non-violence, Abbas and his spokesmen are quick
to blame Israel for continuing the targeted attacks and capture of various
Palestinian terrorists. However, since the attacks are continuing, and
since no agreement has been made so far, the IDF needs to maintain its
anti-terrorist actions. In one case a family handed over their son at a
roadblock rather than have him carry out a suicide mission. This is the
20th case of this happening in the past few months. I suppose the word is
getting around that not only are the suicide bombings not effective, and not
only do they rob the family of their son or daughter, but also their house
will be destroyed and pretty soon the new leadership of the PA is going to
try to stop these attacks altogether. So why bother. In effect the
intifada is over bar the official announcement from the PA itself, and
hopefully that may come in due course.