Sharon's victory in Likud

PM Sharon's victory in getting his candidates and supporters elected to the
head of the Likud Party is a possible turning point for him in his campaign
to get his Government coalition stabilized and his Disengagement Plan
implemented. In the elections for the Chairmanship of the Party Central
Committee, Tzahi Hanegbi, Min. without Portfolio in the Govt., was elected
by 1,457 votes against 1,207 for Uzi Landau MK, former Min. of Security, who
was fired by Sharon for not supporting his policy. Two other Sharon
supporters, Avraham Herschenson and Danny Naveh, were elected to the other
two highest Party positions.
This represents a turnaround in that Sharon had lost two previous Likud
votes. The explanations given for this are that the rank and file of the
Likud had finally been galvanized to come to Sharon's aid because of the
fear that if they did not the Likud Party would split, and because of
Sharon's warnings that an outside extreme rightist element (the so-called
"Jewish Management" group of Moshe Feiglin) would take over the Party. In
giving these warnings and canvassing for votes Sharon finally managed to
activate his supporters to come out and vote in record numbers (93% voted).
Now Sharon is empowered in his coalition negotiations that have been in
abeyance for some time. He is talking to the United Torah Judaism Party and
after them with Labor. Labor Party head negotiator Dalia Itzik said that
time is running out. With new Labor Party elections coming up, she said
that now is Sharon's second chance for a United coalition government with
Labor, and there won't be a third opportunity. So hopefully we will soon
know if Sharon will be able to overcome his situation of a minority
government. Even though he has managed to survive so far he knows this
can't go on for ever.
Meanwhile the new leadership of the PA is threatening that they will call
off the January election if Israel does not make concessions to them in
facilitating the elections. PM Querei said this to US Asst. Secty. of State
William Burns in Ramallah on Sunday. Sharon has already announced that the
IDF will withdraw so that Palestinians will have freedom of movement, but
not so that it will reduce Israeli security. He also said that Arabs in E.
Jerusalem will be allowed to vote by mail, as they did last time there was
an election 19 years ago. This is not what the Palestinians want, they want
a direct vote in Jerusalem, but Israel will never agree to that, so let's
hope they see sense. Querei also announced that he is trying to incorporate
the al Aksa Martyrs Brigades into the PA security forces. This has pros and
cons, on the one hand it makes the security forces more radical, but on the
other hand it brings the radicals under the control of the PA. We'll see
how this works out.
Meanwhile Secty Powell is here, probably for his last visit as Secty. of
State, and said the right things about the US becoming re-engaged and a
"window of opportunity." But, no-one expects any initiatives from him as a
lame duck. There is a specific report in the Times of London that last week
Powell told Pres. Bush that he wanted more power to confront Israel over the
peace process and that Bush turned him down, so he had no choice but to
resign. (That's why we voted for Bush!) Now we await the delicate hand of
Condoleeza.