Sunday, November 07, 2004

Arafat is dead!

Arafat is dead, long live Arafat! That is the current working slogan of the
PA leadership, who cannot afford to let Arafat die, because they don't know
what to do next. He probably died last Thursday, but no-one else has the
right to sign checks on the many accounts he personally controlled, some of
them funds for the PA, some for the PLO, some for Fatah and many of them, up
to b$10, supposedly his own (stolen) funds, and this is claimed by his wife Suha
Arafat as his heir and she has an expensive life style tomaintain in Paris. But,
on the other hand, the PA desperately needs allthis money, including the huge
amount that he salted away into secret accounts. So they have kept him
preternaturally "alive," a kind ofretro-Frankenstein's monster, until they
can resolve this issue. There may yet be a court case over who legitimately
owns these accounts, and a lot of money is at stake.
There is also the little matter of the succession. The "old guard" of Abu
Ala and Abu Mazen, former followers of Arafat from Tripoli and Lebanon, are
working hard together trying to keep the reins of power. Although they are
talking to the Islamist resistance groups, particularly Hamas, there is
little chance that they will agree to share power or decision making for the
PA with them. This would be a bit like putting the anti-EU party in Britain
in charge of relations with the EU.
In addition you have the "young Turks" of the al Aksa Martyr's Brigades and
the Tanzim who are looking to take over more power from the "old guard."
And in the background within the "old guard" there are also potential
schisms, for example with Mohammed Dahlan in Gaza. The distinctions between
these groups is really nothing to do with Israel. Although the "old guard"
might be judged to be more moderate than the others in relation to
peace-making, this is not the issue. The issue is power, money and control.
So Arafat may still be kept in a "controlled coma" for a year or more while
they try to sort things out.
Nevertheless their spokesmen, Abu Rodeina and Saeb Erakat, naturally blame
Israel for all the confusion. The issue of his burial is merely a
distraction to cover up the power struggle. But, since Israel will not
allow him to be buried in Jerusalem, the PA leaders and Suha will likely
settle for Gaza. If he is buried with his father he will finish up in a
small plot inside a market next to the fish stalls. Perhaps appropriate.

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