Seeds of change

Change is in the air. PM Sharon's Disengagement Plan passed the Knesset by
a handy majority 67-45 with 7 abstentions. And now Yasir Arafat is ill with
"stomach flu." As with most dictators, especially one as incompetent as
Arafat, there is no obvious successor. And ironically this is happening on
the anniversary of the assassination of former PM Rabin.
Sharon's Plan is a challenge to the Palestinian leadership, since Arafat has
adopted an essentially passive role in relation to Israeli strategy. He
allows all the factions to carry out their violent activities against Israel
while pretending to be for peace. Everyone has seen through his charade by
now, and so it is no longer effective. If he (hopefully) departs the scene
soon, he will leave behind a mess. A failed and ruined PA, with strong
terrorist groups, many security forces vying for power, and some followers
who might be responsible but can hardly be considered to be in charge. PM
Querei and former PM Abbas, now effective head of Fatah, may work together
to make the PA a more respectable organization. But, they will have to
struggle to stave off Hamas and Dahlan and his security forces in Gaza. The
future of the PA is hardly predictable and may collapse into civil war.
Meanwhile in Israel, the turmoil of the disengagement vote, including the
dismissal of several key ministers who did not toe the coalition line, has
brought the politicians out into the open. Benjamin Netanyahu has now come
out publicly and said that he will challenge Sharon for leadership of the
Likud Party and hence for the premiership. Netanyahu smells blood, since
Sharon has disaffected most of the Likud party leadership with his
"left-wing" Disengagement Plan. Not surprisingly Netanyahu is playing a
double game, voting for the Disengagement Plan while at the same time
pushing for a referendum that Sharon has ruled out.
All this with the backdrop of the US Presidential elections. I predict that
Bush will win by a very narrow majority, and if so then stability in
Washington will help the process of necessary change in the Middle East.
Iraq will gradually be pacified, especially after the Jan elections. Querei
may gather enough power to take control of the PA, and Israel after
initiating the Disengagement Plan will be in a new strategic and political
situation. Maybe all this portends the seeds of a better future. But, if
Kerry is elected then who can predict what changes will ensue for good or
ill.