Arafat's illness

Yasir Arafat's illness raises more questions than answers. After his
domination for 40 years, at last the Palestinians have an opportunity to
escape from under his baleful control. But, will they take it?
Arafat actually has four main roles, he is President of the PA, Chairman of
the PLO and Head of Fatah, his own party within the PLO. He is also Head of
the Security Committee of the PA, a crucial position from which he oversees
all the security forces that he set up when the PA was founded. They were
supposed to be reduced from ca. 8 down to two (police and security forces)
under US and EU pressure, but probably have not been. That is how dictators
typically control their countries.
The Committees are now meeting to decide what to do in his absence, but
mostly they are filling in time, because no one dares to take actual
decisions and actions while Arafat is still alive, even if in a sick-bed in
Paris. Arafat never made the transition from terrorist leader to statesman.
His management style was "neglectful control," i.e. he controlled
everything, but preferred to allow situations to develop rather than act.
In this way he avoided trouble. He did not organize terrorist attacks
himself, but he provided funds through Fatah for them to be organized. He
did not try to control the Hamas and other Islamist terrorist groups, but he
did not hinder their actions either. He was the only person who had the
authority to control terrorism against Israel, but chose not to do so.
While he pretended to be for peace (how many times did he repeat "the peace
of the braves"!), he was nevertheless determined that the Palestinians will
defeat Israel and take the whole of the country. He was not prepared to go
down in history as the Palestinian leader who compromised with Israel and
agreed to divide the land. Compare this with the pragmatic Israeli approach
in which successive Prime Ministers (Rabin, Barak, Sharon) all took actions
to give up land to the Palestinians. Apparently compromise is not in
Arafat's political dictionary.
His roles will have to be spread out among several leaders, and this is
likely to lead to problems as many jostle to be his successor. Luckily
there is a PM, Querei, who can exercise some power, but will he be able to
dominate? Former PM Abbas is the acting head of the PLO/Fatah, but will he
be able to bring the young toughs of the al Aksa Martyrs' Brigades under
control? Will Hamas be emboldened by Arafat's weakness, and try to take
control of Gaza? Will a civil war break out between the opposed security
services of Musa Arafat and Mohammed Dahlan in Gaza?
There is a joke going around in relation to Arafat that there are two kinds
of Israelis, those who want him to die quickly and those who want him to die
slowly and suffer. Considering the suffering he has caused from the first
plane hijackings in the 60s and the terrorist killings over 40 years, to the
latest atrocities, few Israelis would mourn his passing. Also, he has led
the Palestinians down a dead-end in which they have suffered many
casualties, their economy has been ruined and corruption is rampant.
Arafat could not be in a more suitable place, in France, which has continued
to support him while other countries have ostracized him. If he survives
this bout of disease he will return with Israeli permission to an unchanged
situation. But, if he dies of the leukemia that he supposedly has
contracted, which is likely, then the Palestinians will be at a fork in the
road. Which way will they turn, either to continued violent resistance to
Israel's existence, or to compromise, negotiations and peace? Secty. of
State Powell said today that the Palestinians now have the opportunity of
transforming Sharon's Disengagement Plan from a unilateral Israeli move to a
negotiated agreement. But, it is premature for that, the Palestinians are
paralyzed and cannot move until Arafat is permanently removed from the
scene.