Blair as conduit

PM Blair's current visit to Washington is freighted with significance. Even
before the coincidental death of Yasser Arafat, liberals in Britain and in
Europe were putting pressure on Blair to make representations to Pres. Bush
to re-start the Middle East Peace Process, as compensation for letting him
off the hook on Iraq. It's as if they have decided that since they can't
reverse the process in Iraq, at least give them Palestine.
Their basic concept is that the poor Palestinians can't be expected to do
anything, while they are "occupied" by Israel and surrounded by the "wall"
and without choices (terrorism is reduced to the actions of a few
"militants"), especially now that they have lost their "great leader." So,
of course, it is Israel that must make the concessions. Never mind that PM
Sharon has declared a unilateral disengagement from Gaza, never mind that in
fact the PA territories are NOT occupied by the IDF, and never mind that the
Security Fence was built in order to stop the terrorists.
So now the pressure will be on Bush. PM Blair needs to return to the UK
with something, not only that Bush is still the "good guy," but that he can
deliver peace in the Middle East by restarting the Road Map, and in order to
do so he will make sure that Israel makes concessions. Now everything
depends on how Bush will respond, whether or not he will put additional
pressure on PM Sharon, who is already under intense political pressure at
home as a result of his own initiative. Or whether he will also pressure
the new gang running the PA, that includes some of the old gang that he
knows from before, Abbas and Querei, who were previously severely restricted
by Arafat in their freedom of action. Now the question is, can they make
any moves towards fulfilling their commitments to the Road map, particularly
their first requirement of stopping the terrorism.
Of course, first they will plead that they have to be given time to
establish their control after Arafat's removal from the scene. Then they
must tread carefully so as not to antagonize the extremist militants (read
terrorists) of the Islamist rejection front. If they do, then there could
be a civil war. Also, they need 60 days in order to organize elections, of
which there have been previous few in Palestinian history.
So while Bush would no doubt like to give Blair something to take home with
him, to appease his own Party as well as his many critics, it is not clear
what that could be except for a promise that once the dust settles, Bush
will restart the Road Map in conjunction with Sharon and with Querei/Abbas
if they are able. So the pressure on Blair will be transferred to Bush and
then off-loaded in the short term onto Sharon in order to appease the
liberal left-wing pro-Palestinians in the UK and EU.