Kiss of death

Yuval Steinitz, the Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs Committee made
an insightful comment in an interview yesterday. He said that while Arafat
had the power to make peace with Israel but chose not to, conversely the new
leadership of the Palestinians, namely Mahmoud Abbas, may want to make
peace, but do not have the power to do so.
Because of this new reality, Israel has to fine tune its response to the
current Palestinian situation, particularly not to be seen as supporting any
particular candidate, however moderate they may seem. This could be the
"kiss of death" because there are many armed extremist groups in the PA that
don't need much excuse to start shooting at Abbas and his supporters, as
already happened in Gaza last week. A general breakdown of law and order,
and especially assassinations of the moderate leadership, would not be in
Israel's best interests.
That is presumably why PM Sharon in a speech delivered Thursday night at the
Likud Central Committee meeting enumerated the requirements the PA must take
in order to show that they qualify as a responsible "partner for peace."
The first step he mentioned was the end of incitement on PA radio and TV, in
which Israelis and Jews are depicted in racist terms. He said this is an
immediate step the new leadership can take to show they are serious about
reaching a peaceful relationship with Israel. He then mentioned their need
to stop terrorism, but he did not stress as he has done before that they
must destroy the infrastructure of the terrorist groups. If Abbas started
out with the declared aim to do this, he would then find himself in direct
confrontation with the Islamist resistance, and a civil war would erupt in
which the moderates would be seen, as they have already been labeled, as
agents of Israel and America. But, even an end to incitement is expecting
too much from the new leadership, Abbas today already rejected Sharon's
appeal.
The thug who controls Jenin, Zacharia Zubeidi, head of the local al Aksa
Martyrs Brigades and affiliated groups, while sauntering around with a
loaded Kalashnikov and wearing Israel-issue army clothing, declared in an
interview on Sky that he no longer considers himself bound to Fatah, and
that he will act independently if he thinks they are betraying Arafat's
cause. As far as he is concerned, the legacy of Arafat is to fight to the
death in order to destroy Israel. He does not want to see any compromise
that will lead to a "peace" that is short of his maximal goals. Under those
circumstances, the moderate leadership have an uphill stepwise struggle not
only to carry out an election, but to win it, and then to neutralize Zubeidi
and his counterparts throughout the PA territory.
It is not clear that these steps are possible or even probable. So those
who have rushed to announce the outbreak of peace upon the death of Arafat,
as the removal of the biggest impediment to peace, must beware that his
legacy as interpreted by many of his followers is not actually peace but a
continuation of the status quo, the terrorist war against Israel, that the
new moderate leadership are currently not in a position to stop.
It would be a mistake for Israel to make further concessions to the
Palestinians even before elections actually take place and before it is
clear that the moderates can indeed win any elections and can consolidate
their power in the PA. Not only could this be dangerous for Israel, it
could be dangerous to the very moderates we would like to see win these
elections and with whom we hope to be able to deal.