Dream team

It's difficult to believe, but things are going well for Israel for a change.
Pres. Bush was re-elected, Arafat died, Secty. of State Powell resigned
and has been replaced by Condoleeza Rice, and there are now reports
that Secty. of Defense Rumsfeldwill resign probably to be replaced by
Under-Secty. of State Wolfowitz.
It's not that Powell was not a good friend of Israel, but he was widely
known as the "liberal" voice in the Bush Administration, arguing for more
caution and more cooperation with allies, such as France and Germany.
That may have been his role as the chief diplomat of the Govt. but it was
characteristic of him. Many will know that Powell was against the first
Gulf War when he was Chief of Staff of the US Armed Forces, and was also
not enthusiastic about the Iraq war. Since the war was fought and won,
and France and Germany refused to cooperate, his position basically became
untenable in the Administration. Some of you will say that the war hasn't
been won yet, but it is only a matter of time if the US uses its forces to
literally flush out the insurgents from one Sunni city after another, as in
Falujah and Mosul, and then the results of the too-easy winning of the war
will be overcome.
Rumsfeld is a Neocon hawk, and as such was behind much of the military
decision-making to fight the war in Iraq. But, he also made mistakes,
including the Abu Ghraib mistreatment of prisoners that occurred
on his watch, as well as the lack of preparation for the insurgency after
the war, so it may be time for him to leave. Wolfowitz is Rumsfeld's man,
so there will be little change in policy. It is a measure of the internal
changes and
strength of the US that a black woman and a Jew can be appointed to the two
most powerful positions in the land after the President (and I don't count
the VP). But, perhaps I am getting a bit ahead of myself, Wolfowitz has not
been announced as Rumsfeld's successor and Rumsfeld has not even resigned
as of this writing, so let's wait and see. Whatever happens now, the removal
ofArafat, and the ascension of Rice represent a net positive outcome for
Israel.
In the area, Hamas and Islamic Jihad have responded negatively to acting
Fatah Chief Abbas' call to cooperate with other groups in a ceasefire with
Israel during the run-up to the PA elections in two months. But, it is felt
that if the PA really wants these elections to go smoothly, then they will
need Israel's absolute cooperation, to enable free movement of voters, and
they can only get this if the wave of terrorism ceases, i.e. if there is a ceasefire.
Hamas and the others want in exchange a commitment from Abbas to
include them in the interim PA governing process. But, if he is elected,
Abbas will not want them controlling his actions, so this is very unlikely.
Nevertheless, some form of at least temporary ceasefire is likely, and if
all goes well Abbas will be elected President of the PA in place of Arafat.
Many have criticized Abbas for his past close relationship with Arafat, his
role in earlier PLO terrorism and so on. But, this is a new day. Abbas was
not only prepared to meet with Bush and Sharon when he was briefly PM,
but also to come out publicly against terrorism. While he certainly does
not want to fight a civil war with the Islamic resistance, he is the best hope
for a partner for peace on the Palestinian side. Remember that Khrushchev
was Stalin's right-hand man, but he was the one who denounced him after his
death and changed the system in Russia. The al Aksa Martyrs Brigades, have
now dissociated themselves from Fatah and call themselves the Arafat Martyrs
Brigades, have set up their own courts to "try" Arafat's corrupt cronies,
and they will sentence them to death! If they try to carry out their verdicts
then all hell will break loose in the PA.
Let's hope Abbas too becomes a member of the Dream Team that can bring a
measure of peace to the area. If he does, then Sharon, having committed
himself to unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, will be in a strong position to
coordinate with Abbas through the good offices of the US.