Elections

Marwan Barghouti has now declared that he will be a candidate for the
Presidency of the PA. This is a challenge to the leadership of the "old
guard," represented by the official Fatah candidate Mahmoud Abbas. There is
already a move by the power structure of Fatah to try to dissuade Barghouti
from running. Barghouti is in jail in Israel, after being found guilty and
given five life sentences for the direct murder of five Israelis, as well as
organizing numerous other terrorist incidents and running a terrorist
organization, namely the Fatah al Aksa Martyr's Brigades. So it is also a
challenge to Israel.
Israel has said that whatever happens he will not be released, but they
cannot stop his name from appearing on the ballots, so this can be viewed as
a means of pressuring Israel. There is already a campaign underway in
Europe for the release of Marwan Barghouti, with posters appearing all over
France. So it is part of the overall PR struggle against Israel, as if he
is a political prisoner or has been illegally imprisoned.
The issue of what happens if Barghouti should win the "democratic election,"
must be faced. If he wins then there will be enormous pressure on Israel to
release him. But, if he wins it will also mean that there will be a power
struggle for control of the PA, with the political wing of Fatah represented
by the "old" power structure against the new military wing of Fatah
represented by the al Aksa Martyrs Brigades. Its as if in N. Ireland both
Sinn Fein and the IRA had rival candidates.
The Islamist groups would undoubtedly support Barghouti, as the more radical
of the candidates. They may even run a candidate of their own, although he
would be unlikely to get sufficient votes. A lot hinges on how fair the
election is, as can be seen by what is happening in the Ukraine. The EU is
supposedly going to send election monitors into the PA, but how effectively
they will operate and how the election will be run remains to be seen.
The choice before the Palestinian electorate would seem to be stark, either
elect a respectable well-established and moderate politician or a
rabble-rousing terrorist extremist. If the Palestinians as usual "never
miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity" (to use Abba Eban's famous
phrase) then they will choose Barghouti. But, the actual difference between
the two men is not as great as it appears. Both of them appeal to the
voters on the basis of following Arafat's true legacy. Abbas has already
stated that he will continue the "dream" of Arafat to obtain the "right of
return" for all so-called Palestinian "refugees," as well as having
Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian State. The only real difference
between them is the attitude towards violence/terrorism. So the electorate
has a choice, either endorse a possibly peaceful way forward by choosing
Abbas or continue the current violent intifada by choosing Barghouti. If
the majority choose the latter course it will be another case of the
Palestinians shooting themselves in the foot again, and it will lead to a
cessation of the Road Map and a period of further violence and uncertainty.
If Israel refuses to release Barghouti to serve as the President then this
will revitalize the extremist elements and more terrorism will ensue.
An alternative and radical view is that Barghouti would be the better choice
for both Israel and the Palestinians, because if he is really prepared to
make a deal and achieve the Palestinian State, then he has greater
credibility to deliver the Palestinians than Abbas could, much in the same
way that Begin could withdraw from Sinai and Sharon from Gaza. But, this is
an extremely unlikely scenario.
If the Palestinians choose Abbas then the chances for a negotiated peace are
much greater, but as I have pointed out this does not automatically mean
that peace will break out. First, the extremists will challenge him and
there could still be an internal power struggle, second the terrorists will
want to continue the "armed struggle" against Israel, and third Abbas might
not be the responsible "partner for peace" that both Israel and the US hope
and expect. If he is, he faces the possibility of assassination by being
considered an "agent" of the US or Israel. So either way we are in for a
bumpy ride ahead.