Great expectations

Speaking at the annual Conference of the Herzliya Inter-disciplinary Center
on Thursday night PM Sharon gave a very conciliatory speech. He declared
2005 a year of "great opportunity," and called upon surrounding Arab
countries not to miss this historic chance of making peace with Israel. He
stated that "2005 can be the year in which we establish the foundation for a
long-lasting Israeli-Palestinian agreement." He offered to "coordinate
various elements of our disengagement plan with the future Palestinian
Government," and stated that major concessions are required from both sides,
and Israel has made "the historic decision that we are prepared for such
concessions ...because the alternative of one nation ruling over another
would be a horrible disaster for both peoples."
In response to these conciliatory comments the PA reacted angrily, saying
that "he would not find a Palestinian partner for his vision!" More
specifically, Mahmoud Abbas told al-Jazeera TV "these statements are
unacceptable and completely rejected." Is this the kind of response one
would expect from a leader preparing for a peaceful future? Much is being
written about Abbas, the sure winner of the upcoming PA Presidential
elections. But, how sure are we that he is sincere, that he really wants
peace. The answer is that no-one really knows.
While touring the Arab world in the wake of Arafat's death, seeking support
from the entrenched and dictatorial rulers of these lands, Abbas has sounded
like no one else other than Arafat. He says that he is against the use of
violence, especially used against Israeli civilians, because it is
counter-productive for the Palestinian struggle at this stage. Not that it
is wrong, or immoral, or against Islam, just that it is untimely. Recently
in Saudi Arabia, of course seeking financial support that has waned during
Arafat's regime, Abbas sounded very conciliatory to the Saudis, as he has
done to the Syrians, Lebanese and Egyptians. Once again the anticipated
leader of the Palestinians is preparing himself to be the point man for the
whole Arab world in its perceived vital struggle against Zionism.
The question is will Abbas, in the mould the Americans have designed for him
of democratic reformer, follow in the footsteps of Sadat of Egypt, who
really made peace with Israel, or of Assad and the myriad of other dictators
who have used the Arab-Israel conflict as an excuse to avoid any progress or
improvement of their people? Let me make myself clear, I don't care if the
Arabs live in dire poverty and make no progress, that is their concern. All
I care about is that in those circumstances they continue to believe that
destroying Israel will somehow rid them of this condition. That is their
illusion and to a large extent their acquired culture.
But, actually any sensible rational man would know that the reverse is true,
in order to improve their lot and start to develop they need peace. War
only keeps them down, and so far as anyone can see from bitter experience
war does not hold any hope for them to attain their goals of destroying
Israel and replacing it with a Palestinian State. The concept of an Arab
"right of return" to Israel is the give-away. Every Arab knows that Israel
will not and cannot accept this, because they would be a determined fifth
column that would destroy Israel from within, if not by sabotage then by
demographics. Israel already has a 20% Arab minority, and the Palestinians
are planning to have no Jews (0%) in their future state! So their apparent
support for a two-state solution is a front, a cover for their continuing
destruction of Israel in stages, the old Arafat-PLO strategy. And Abbas
strongly adheres to this policy and has publicly insisted that he will not
accept any agreement that does not allow full and complete return of all
"refugees" to Israel, and he has said this in all his stops, in Lebanon,
Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Now you could call this a campaign platform designed to gain support from
even the hard-line resistance to democratic reform in the PA, or a
pre-negotiating position that will soften later. Maybe. But, the fact
remains that there are no peaceful conciliatory sounds coming from the front
runner in the PA, and this does not augur well for the rosy future that the
American and Israeli Governments are projecting. Apart from the steps that
Mubarak of Egypt seems to be making to improve relations with Israel,
including the recently signed trade pact, no-one in the Arab world yet dares
to talk publicly like Sharon of a constructive peace with Israel.
Meanwhile the Israeli Govt. coalition talks appear, after a rocky start, to
have succeeded. Labor will have 8 ministries and Shimon Peres will be
Deputy PM along with incumbent Ehud Olmert of Likud. With Labor in the
Govt. and Peres probably in charge of negotiations with the PA, the
Palestinians think that they have achieved a great victory, forcing Sharon
to give in to them, and they will try to drive a hard bargain. They expect
from previous experience that Peres will be malleable and conciliatory.
Because of the losses from terrorism that Israel has suffered they expect
major Israeli concessions without themselves having to make compromises, and
if they don't get them they have not ruled out a continuation of terrorism
in the future. How much has really changed? Is this another case of
self-deceptive "Oslo illusions"?