Syria and Lebanon

This evening the Lebanese Government resigned in the face of mounting public
demonstrations. Tens of thousands have been demonstrating in Beirut against
Syrian occupation of Lebanon and its control of the Lebanese Government
since the assassination of Rafik Hariri last week, for which Syria has been
blamed. One of the notable features of these demonstrations is that they
have been multi-denominational, including Christians of all persuasions
(Maronite, Catholic) and Sunni Muslims (Hariri was Sunni). This is Syria's
worst nightmare, that the factions will unite against them. Notable by
their absence from the crowds are the Shia Muslims who inhabit Southern
Lebanon, and who tend to be pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian. They also tend to
be Islamist and virulently anti-Israel and supportive of Hizbollah.
What will happen next in Lebanon is anybody's guess. Note that Syria
regards Lebanon (and Israel and Jordan too for that matter) as part of its
territory, that was stolen by the West, particularly Britain during the
Mandate of Palestine (that included then Transjordan). While France gave up
its Mandate of Syria and Lebanon, and Syria was subsequently able to use the
Civil War in Lebanon as an excuse to send its forces in to restore order and
occupy Lebanon, now there is no rational basis for their presence except
pure military control. In the wake of the recent US-French UN Security
Council resolution 1551 that requires Syria to withdraw all its forces from
Lebanon, Syria has responded by reducing its forces to some 16,000 and
supposedly redeploying them to the Bekaa valley adjacent to the Syrian
border, but this has not been independently confirmed.
Meanwhile Israel has documentary evidence that Islamic Jihad operating out
of Damascus was behind the recent suicide bombing in Tel Aviv, that killed
five Israelis and wounded 60. That this was so indicates not only the
opposition of many Palestinian and Arab groups to reject any accommodation
with Israel, but also as an indirect challenge to Pres. Abbas of the PA.
While Islamic Jihad in Gaza has flip-flopped on claiming credit for this
bombing (first they claimed it, then they backed off), nevertheless this
attack did originate in the PA, and was actually organized and executed from
there (near Tulkarm). The fact is that the terrorist group's infrastructure
is still intact in the PA territories, apart from Israeli depredations of
it. So far Abbas has taken no action against them. Note that in order to
get into Israel, because of the Security Fence around Tulkam, the bomber had
to take a circuitous route through Jerusalem where the fence is incomplete.
Although Israel could order the IDF to attack Islamic Jihad facilities in
Lebanon and Syria, at this particularly sensitive juncture, with Lebanon on
the brink of a revolution and Syria under pressure from the West, Israel
does not want to give anyone any excuse for sympathy with Syria. So the
Israel Foreign Ministry is mounting an information campaign to convince the
Western countries of Syria's involvement in the support of terrorism and
guilt specifically for this attack in Tel Aviv. Many people in Israel would
like to see Syria punished for its actions, and many in the US would also
like to see this for Syrian support for the insurgency in Iraq. But, we
may have to give up our preferences for action at this time, since we don't
want to give Syria or its Lebanese agents any excuse for not quitting
Lebanon.
By the way, regarding Syrian support for the insurgency in Iraq, Syria just
handed over Saddam Hussein's half-brother, al-Takriti, to the Iraqi
Government. They claim they just found him living in Syria, but if anyone
believes that they are quite gullible, since Syria is an extreme police
state, and no one does anything there without the Syrian secret police
knowing. So we can assume they have been harboring him since the downfall
of Saddam and cooperating in his support of the insurgency in Iraq.
So things are going our way, and hopefully the full impact of the change in
Lebanon and the pressure on the Syrian Government have not yet been
realized. However, this does not punish Syria nor Islamic Jihad for the
deaths of five Israelis (two of whom were young women about to be married).
Hopefully that day will come soon.