The Summit at Sharm-al-Sheikh

The Summit at Sharm-al-Sheikh today between PM Sharon of Israel and Pres.
Abbas of the PA was historic, but low key. It was noteworthy for several
specific reasons:
1. There was little high flown oratory, although peace was mentioned a lot,
there were only three short speeches, mostly dwelling on the initial steps
towards peace. In that respect it seemed more pragmatic than previous
Summits, there were no public negotiations and no signing ceremonies. The
speeches of the two principals were in effect declarations to each other and
the public at large. Abbas declared that the PA will cease attacks on all
Israelis everywhere! Sharon declared in response that all military
activities against Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank will cease. So
now we have a ceasefire, but let's see how well the Palestinians can
"police" it. That is the key issue. While Abbas made this declaration,
only the previous day the Fatah Revolutionary Council, that Abbas chaired,
issued a statement saying that Israelis are legitimate targets if they are
soldiers or if they are in the "occupied territories." So how do you trust
Abbas? As Sharon said in his speech, it is not the words that matter but
the deeds that back them up. In effect, Israel got what it wanted though,
an initial meeting at which security was the main issue. All other "final
status" issues were left for later in the Road Map.
2. It was conspicuous that the US did not participate. In fact Secty. of
State Rice could have been there, but chose not to, and that was probably a
wise choice, in that expectations might have been raised, and the US is now
able to emphasize its role as mediator, with the two sides taking the
detailed steps. Instead Mubarak of Egypt got to be the host and that was
good for him, in that he comes across as the major facilitator of the Arab
world.
3. In their speeches, as well as that of Rice in Italy also today, several
speakers noted that this should be the beginning of a general Arab movement
towards making peace with Israel, and Mubarak included the Syrian-Lebanon
track. The presence of King Abdullah of Jordan also gave an imprimatur of
peace with the Arabs. It is noteworthy however that the chief opposition to
peace comes from Hizbollah that is operating in south Lebanon, with Syrian
support, and Iranian funding and training.
4. Notwithstanding the declaration to stop attacks, today there were as
usual ca. 50 warnings of attacks in Israel, and it has been announced that
Hizbollah has raised the regular $2,000 per attack to $20,000, in order to
disrupt the peace process. Hamas also issued a statement rejecting the
ceasefire. If a major attack occurs and Israel is forced to respond, that
might derail the whole process at this fragile moment. The question is can
Abbas prevent the terrorists who are still armed and ready on the
Palestinian side from carrying out more attacks.
5. Since the two sides could not agree on the "confidence building
measures" that Israel is proposing, a Committee was set up to negotiate
them. This seems strange, but Israel will nevertheless release some 900
prisoners, and turn over control of security of 5 West Bank towns (Jericho,
Bethlehem, Kalkilya, Tulkarm and Ramallah) to the PA security forces. There
are no "confidence building measures" from the Palestinian side, except
perhaps the actual deployment of the PA security forces in Gaza, and the
current lull in rocket and other attacks.
6. Sharon declared his intention of going ahead with the Gaza Disengagement
Plan and issued an invitation to Abbas to coordinate the process with the
PA.
If we are to consider what has brought us to this hopeful moment, there are
three things:
1. The death of Arafat, whose removal from the scene clearly proves the
point that Israel and the US were making that in effect there was no peace
partner on the Palestinian side while he was in control.
2. The fact that the IDF's counter attacks, including both targeted killings
of terrorists and military incursions, were an effective response to the
terrorism, and showed that Israel could not be either terrorized or
destabilized by this four year wave of bombings and killings.
3. The building of the Security fence, that has shown the Palestinians that
Israel is serious about separation from them, which would be an economic and
political disaster for their aspirations.
Finally, both sides are now exhausted by the intifada, and so in effect
the Summit was an admission by the leader of the PA that it hasn't worked,
and by both sides that there is no viable military solution. So we have
turned the corner to negotiations. We all breathe a sigh of relief and hope
that the road ahead remains clear.