Secty. Rice

I welcome the confirmation of Condoleeza Rice as US Secretary of State. She
is a strong supporter of freedom and democracy around the world and of
Israel as a loyal US ally. In her confirmation hearings she made two
important comments related to the Middle East:
1. That PA President Mahmoud Abbas must stop all violence against Israel
from the PA as the first step in the Road Map towards peace, and as a
prerequisite for future negotiations with Israel. The fact that Abbas
agrees with this and is now in Gaza negotiating with the terrorist groups
indicates that their actions are the main impediment to progress, not the
so-called "Israeli occupation" that they use as an excuse to justify their
attacks. Note that Abbas has announced that he will deploy security forces
to stop the rocket launches, but the number reported varies from 8,000 to
700, and it has been announced by the PA security chief that these forces
have not been ordered to fire on the terrorists, rather to "persuade" them
to stop firing. Hands up who thinks this will work! Meanwhile Israel has
renewed security cooperation with the PA, but has a large invasion force
standing by in case the persuasion doesn't work!
2. Arab States must stop their incitement against Israel and their support
for terrorism 'under the counter' while at the same time claiming to want
peace. One should remember that under the Oslo Accords, that Israel
partially implemented, including withdrawal from Arab-majority areas in
order to establish the PA, the Arab States agreed to then recognize Israel,
but they never did (only Egypt and Jordan). Now they will be given another
chance to show their true feelings.
One way that Secty. Rice could facilitate a settlement of the Arab-Israel
conflict would be to stop US payments to UNWRA, the peculiar UN Agency that
perpetuates the conflict. If the standard UNHCR definition of a refugee is
accepted, namely one who has left his country, excluding descendents, then
there are in fact very few Palestinian refugees left in the world. The
return of the remaining refugees to Palestine could easily be arranged by
the UN. Those of Palestinian origin born in other countries should be
settled where they live according to international norms, and this is the
precedent established for those born in Jordan who are Jordanian citizens.
Notably all those Jews (ca. 450,000) who came from Arab lands and settled in
Israel became Israeli citizens.
With a commitment to peaceful resolution of conflicts, the second term of
Pres. Bush with Secty. Rice by his side could usher in a new era of peace in
our region. The two sticking points beside the future of Palestinian-Israel
relations are of course,
1) Iraq: If enough Iraqis survive the terrorist onslaught to vote, then in a
few weeks there will be a new government in office to draw up a democratic
constitution for Iraq. Depending on how many Sunnis vote and what their
continuing reaction will be to Shia domination, we may see either a decrease
or an increase in violence, it truly could go either way.
2) Iran: the nuclear threat form Iran becomes more tangible every day.
Seymour Hirsh's article in the New Yorker magazine attracted a lot of
attention to the possibility of US military action against numerous atomic
sites in Iran. But, one can regard this major leak as a warning to Iran.
However, since Iran is not likely to get the message, and they have
announced that they are capable of resisting any attacks, don't expect this
situation to die down soon. If the atomic threat looks imminent there may
be a US and/or an Israeli attack that could greatly exacerbate the
situation.
Meanwhile Pres. Bush is happy that Sharon has delayed the threatened IDF
invasion of Gaza, in order to give Abbas a chance to arrange a ceasefire,
until after his second inauguration today.